Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.58+0.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Dutch Bros aims to open at least 185 new shops this year, driving growth. Revenue guidance was raised to about $2.07 billion for 2026. The company showed 30.8% revenue growth in Q1 2026. Expansion into new markets like Chicago supports long-term growth.
Expansion and margin pressures could slow profit growth. The recent Q1 earnings missed estimates by 13%. Elevated valuation multiples suggest high expectations that may be hard to meet.
The stock price is about 36% above our fair value near $49. Analysts expect roughly 29% revenue growth next year. Our fair value is below the Street median, reflecting some caution on growth sustainability.
Breaks if: Capital expenditures fall outside $270M-$290M range in FY26
Breaks if: Full-year revenue falls below $2.05 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and growth in shop openings.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, though it is considered expensive compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, suggesting that some growth is already anticipated by investors.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management is on track with revenue growth and shop openings. However, there is an elevated risk level due to potential economic headwinds that could impact performance.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on growth plans. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders like MCD, SBUX, and CMG will be crucial for overall sector momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'moderate' to 'elevated'.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. However, competition and the loss of locations challenge growth expansion plans.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Dutch Bros has increased its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $2.05 billion to $2.08 billion.
Breaks if: New shop openings fall below 185 by fiscal year end
Continue expanding the total number of shops systemwide, targeting at least 185 new openings in 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management targets at least 185 total system shop openings in 2026, up from 181 estimated at 2025-Q4. Actual shop count increased from 1,177 at 2026-Q1 to 1,225 at 2026-Q2, reflecting delivery on expansion. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth in shop openings.
“Total system shop openings are estimated to be at least 185.”
“Total system shop openings are now estimated to be at least 185.”
“Total system shop openings are estimated to be at least 181.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, BROS's performance will depend on management execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.