Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.57-21.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.27 → 1.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BROS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures remain between $270M and $290M | A supporting condition in Dutch Bros Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $270M to $290M. | Broken | Capital expenditures fall outside $270M-$290M range in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $72.29M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $270M to $290M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202672,290,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business whose multi-year view depends on continued shop expansion and revenue growth. The thesis is intact, with recent performance in the top half of its industry, though confidence has eased from high to medium.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a meaningful premium and some value resting on future growth options. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, but model confidence is low, so how much growth the market assumes is uncertain.
Near-term results have been strong, including three recent earnings beats and second-quarter revenue growth of 19% from the prior quarter. Management raised full-year revenue guidance twice, while shop expansion is progressing; higher capital spending adds execution risk, and a guidance reversal would hurt credibility.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether BROS sustains its raised guidance and continues expanding its shop base. The sector backdrop also matters: continued strength from major restaurant peers could support momentum, while misses or lower guidance could remove that tailwind.
For the 1-3 year view, the business has solid recent momentum and a clear expansion plan, but the expensive valuation, rising investment needs, and risk of guidance setbacks make execution central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Dutch Bros aims to open at least 185 new shops this year, driving growth. |
| Intact |
| Full-year revenue falls below $2.05 billion in FY26 |
Revenue: $550.851M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.05 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026550,851,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Open at least 185 new shops by fiscal year end | Dutch Bros aims to open at least 185 new shops this year, driving growth. | Intact | New shop openings fall below 185 by fiscal year end | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.26 → $1.26 · observed estimates
$2.57B → $2.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.26 | $2,566,302,900 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.22 | $2,570,292,051 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.26 | $2,567,822,020 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.26 | $2,567,822,020 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.26 | $2,567,822,020 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.26 | $2,567,822,020 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.26 | $2,567,822,020 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.26 | $2,568,278,760 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.23 | $2,572,353,813 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.26 | $2,568,580,670 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.26 | $2,568,580,670 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.26 | $2,568,580,670 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.26 | $2,568,580,670 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.26 | $2,568,580,670 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.26 | $2,650,490,193 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.26 | $2,650,490,193 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.28 | $2,640,473,560 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.28 | $2,640,473,560 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.26 | $2,650,490,193 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.32 | $2,642,111,070 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.32 | $2,642,111,070 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.26 | $2,650,490,193 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.26 | $2,650,490,193 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.26 | $2,650,490,193 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.26 | $2,650,490,193 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.26 | $2,650,490,193 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.26 | $2,650,490,193 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.26 | $2,650,490,193 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.26 | $2,657,926,146 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.26 | $2,657,926,146 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.26 | $2,657,926,146 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.26 | $2,657,926,146 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.26 | $2,657,926,146 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.26 | $2,657,926,146 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.26 | $2,657,926,146 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.26 | $2,662,719,938 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.26 | $2,662,719,938 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.26 | $2,662,719,938 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.26 | $2,662,719,938 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.26 | $2,662,719,938 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.26 | $2,662,719,938 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.26 | $2,662,719,938 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.26 | $2,661,078,105 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.26 | $2,661,078,105 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.26 | $2,661,078,105 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.26 | $2,661,078,105 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.26 | $2,661,078,105 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.26 | $2,661,078,105 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.26 | $2,661,078,105 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.26 | $2,661,078,105 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.26 | $2,657,623,400 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.26 | $2,657,623,400 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.26 | $2,657,623,400 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.26 | $2,657,623,400 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.26 | $2,657,623,400 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.26 | $2,658,910,464 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.26 | $2,658,910,464 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.26 | $2,658,910,464 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.26 | $2,656,168,940 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.26 | $2,656,168,940 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.26 | $2,656,168,940 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.26 | $2,656,168,940 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.26 | $2,656,168,504 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.26 | $2,656,168,504 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.26 | $2,656,168,504 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.27 | $2,658,125,525 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.27 | $2,658,125,525 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.27 | $2,655,438,025 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.27 | $2,654,360,431 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.27 | $2,654,327,098 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.27 | $2,654,327,098 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.27 | $2,654,899,723 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.27 | $2,654,899,723 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.27 | $2,654,899,723 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.27 | $2,654,899,723 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.27 | $2,654,899,723 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.27 | $2,654,899,723 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.27 | $2,654,899,723 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.27 | $2,654,899,723 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.27 | $2,654,899,723 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.27 | $2,654,899,723 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.27 | $2,654,899,723 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.27 | $2,654,899,723 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.27 | $2,654,899,723 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.27 | $2,654,778,773 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.27 | $2,654,778,773 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.27 | $2,655,045,439 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.27 | $2,655,045,439 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.27 | $2,655,045,439 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.27 | $2,655,045,439 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.27 | $2,654,712,560 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.27 | $2,652,087,560 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.25 | $2,649,175,060 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.25 | $2,649,175,060 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.25 | $2,649,175,060 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.26 | $2,651,431,091 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.26 | $2,651,431,091 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.26 | $2,651,431,091 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.26 | $2,651,431,091 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.26 | $2,651,435,257 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.26 | $2,651,435,257 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.26 | $2,651,435,257 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.26 | $2,651,435,257 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.26 | $2,651,435,257 | 12 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 9 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.