Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$34.57-21.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BROS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 27.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BROS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: The sector report says consumer spending is under pressure, though recent data hints at a change. Weak retail sales would add to that concern.
Worry ifThe Nov. 17 retail sales report shows a year-over-year decline in retail sales.
Less concerning ifThe Nov. 17 report shows year-over-year retail sales growth.
Why it matters: The company raised its spending range from $270M-$290M to $350M-$370M. Spending above the new range would add pressure to its growth investment plan.
Worry ifReported 2026 spending on capital is over $370M.
Less concerning ifReported 2026 capital spending is $370M or less.
Why it matters: Q2 system same-shop sales were 5.8%, within the new 5%-6% yearly goal. A lower Q3 result would put that goal at risk.
Worry ifQ3 system same-shop sales growth is below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 system same-shop sales growth is at least 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Dutch Bros raised its 2026 targets twice. Meeting the latest targets would back up its growth plan.
Supportive ifOn Nov. 4, the company keeps 2026 revenue guidance at $2.10B-$2.13B, same-shop sales at 5%-6%, and adjusted EBITDA at $385M-$390M.
Worry ifOn Nov. 4, the company cuts any of those three 2026 target ranges.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $500 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,284 loss on $10,000 · 52.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Shop growth is a key part of the company's expansion plan. Dutch Bros had 1,225 shops at the end of Q2.
Supportive ifThe company reports at least 185 total system shop openings for 2026.
Worry ifThe company lowers its 2026 opening goal below 185, or reports fewer than 185 openings for the year.