Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.58+0.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BROS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 29.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BROS — earnings in line
Dated 2025-11-05
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Lower guidance may show higher costs. It could also mean trouble making money.
Worry ifEBITDA guidance is below $370 million.
Less concerning ifEBITDA guidance is above $380 million.
Why it matters: This shows how well the company is managing its earnings. A drop could signal issues.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $90 million for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA was above $95 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More spending may show plans for growth. It could also raise cost concerns.
Watch forCapital spending is over $370 million.
Also watch forCapital spending is below $350 million.
Why it matters: Higher spending could indicate aggressive growth plans but may also raise financial risks.
Watch forSpending was above $370 million for 2026.
Also watch forSpending was below $350 million for 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$181 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $489 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,693 loss on $10,000 · 36.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth may mean it is hard to keep up momentum.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth reported below 30% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue growth reported above 32% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This shows that customers are less engaged. It may affect future growth plans.
Worry ifSystemwide same shop sales growth reported below 5% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifSystemwide same shop sales growth reported above 6% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Achieving this target would show strong execution on growth plans and support revenue growth.
Supportive ifTotal system shop openings reported at 185 or more by the end of 2026.
Worry ifTotal system shop openings reported below 180 by the end of 2026.