Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.46-5.72%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.66 → 0.60 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BRSP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage capital allocation including share repurchase and financing | It manages capital well with $250M in repurchase agreements supporting growth. | Intact | repurchase agreements fall below $200M in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BRSP is a higher-risk, value-oriented real estate lender rather than a steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: loan growth is on track, but recent performance is weak and earnings remain loss-making.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is close to neutral. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to an unusually fragile market setup.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated, including a stated risk of another miss, and the latest event was an earnings miss. Over the multi-year view, management has grown the loan book by more than 30% year over year, but progress on resolving REO and watchlist exposure is mixed; momentum has also weakened sharply despite improved quality and management signals.
The thesis depends on continued loan originations and measurable progress in resolving remaining REO and watchlist exposure. Near term, Fed rate cuts could help rate-sensitive real estate names, while lower guidance or signs of weakness among sector peers could remove support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, BRSP combines a cheap-versus-peers valuation and delivered loan growth with weak recent results, elevated miss risk, and uneven progress on asset resolution. The long-term thesis remains watchful and hinges on execution and sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company maintains a steady dividend of $0.16 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend falls below $0.16 per share next quarter |
Dividend per share: $0.16 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.16 dividend per share next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Oct 28, 20260.16 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Dividend Announcement On September 14, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.16 per share to holders of Class A common stock for the third quarter of 2026, which was paid on October 14, 2026, to common stockholders of record as of September 30, 2026.” “Dividend Announcement On June 15, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.16 per share to holders of Class A common stock for the second quarter of 2026, which was paid on July 15, 2026, to common stockholders of record as of June 30, 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Grow portfolio and earnings through new loan originations | BrightSpire keeps growing its loan portfolio and earnings. | Intact | revenue falls below $83M next quarter | Revenue: $87.355M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $85.14M revenue next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 202687,355,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “As of today, our loan book stands at approximately $3.1 billion, up over 30% year-over-year, while also improving the overall composition of our middle market focused loan portfolio.”” “As of today our loan book stands at approximately $2.9 billion, up over 20% year-over-year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Resolve remaining REO and watchlist loans | A supporting condition in BrightSpire Capital, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Progress in resolving REO and watchlist loans through 2026. | Improving | No progress or increase in REO and watchlist loans by end 2026 | Qualitative progress: $300m REO sale completed BrightSpire completed a $300 million sale of industrial properties in September 2026, reinforcing the objective to resolve remaining REO. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.69 → $0.60 · observed estimates
$0.27B → $0.36B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.69 | $266,083,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.69 | $266,083,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.69 | $266,083,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.69 | $266,083,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.69 | $266,083,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.70 | $266,083,000 | 8 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.70 | $266,083,000 | 8 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.67 | $274,014,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.67 | $260,009,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.67 | $274,014,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.67 | $274,014,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.67 | $274,014,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.65 | $274,014,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.65 | $274,014,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.66 | $260,009,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.65 | $274,014,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.65 | $274,014,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.65 | $274,014,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.66 | $260,009,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.65 | $274,014,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.66 | $260,009,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.66 | $260,009,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.66 | $260,009,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.66 | $260,009,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.66 | $260,009,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.66 | $260,009,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.66 | $260,009,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.66 | $260,009,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.66 | $260,009,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.66 | $260,009,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.66 | $274,014,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.66 | $274,014,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.66 | $274,014,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.66 | $274,014,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.66 | $274,014,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.66 | $274,014,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.66 | $274,014,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.66 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.65 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.65 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.65 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.65 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.65 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.65 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.65 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.65 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.65 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.65 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.65 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.65 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.65 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.63 | $334,228,000 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.63 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.63 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.63 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.63 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.63 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.63 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.63 | $334,228,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.61 | $360,546,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.61 | $360,546,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.60 | $360,546,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.60 | $360,546,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.60 | $360,546,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.60 | $360,546,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.60 | $360,546,000 | 5 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.