BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.68+0.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BRSP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
BRSP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 28, 2026, BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial position as of June 30, 2026 and its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. On July 28, 2026, the Company made available a Supplemental Financial Disclosure Presentation for the second qu…
Why it matters: Strong loan originations signal growth in the portfolio, supporting earnings. This is key for BrightSpire's strategy.
Supportive ifIn Q3, loan originations were more than $300 million.
Worry ifIn Q3, loan originations were less than $250 million.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend policy may show shifts in financial health or spending plans.
Worry ifManagement maintains the dividend at $0.16 per share for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifManagement announces a cut in the dividend per share from $0.16.
Why it matters: The acquisition could enhance BrightSpire's portfolio and earnings. Success here may signal growth potential.
Supportive ifThe acquisition increases portfolio value or earnings. This happens within 6 months.
Worry ifAn acquisition does not help portfolio value or earnings within 6 months.
Why it matters: Fixing these loans is important for BrightSpire's financial health.
Supportive ifManagement reports a reduction of at least 15% in REO and watchlist loans.
Worry ifREO and watchlist loans remain unchanged or increase.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $266 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,356 loss on $10,000 · 23.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in Distributable Earnings shows that new loans are working well. It also shows good management of the portfolio.
Supportive ifDistributable Earnings for Q2 2026 were more than $15.6 million.
Worry ifDistributable Earnings for Q2 2026 were less than $15.6 million.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.16 per share for Q3.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend below $0.16 per share.
Why it matters: More new loans help BrightSpire earn more and grow its portfolio.
Supportive ifNew loan originations grow by more than 10% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifNew loan originations decline or grow less than 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could improve BrightSpire's performance. This would help the overall sector outlook.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the real estate sector exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: More buybacks can show management's confidence in the company's value.
Supportive ifThe company announces share buybacks over $50 million in Q3.
Worry ifNo buyback activity or a reduction in the buyback program.
Why it matters: Fewer watch list loans show better risk management. This helps the portfolio.
Supportive ifWatch list loans decrease by more than 20% in Q3.
Worry ifWatch list loans increase or remain flat, indicating unresolved risks.
Why it matters: Finishing the asset sale shows good capital use. It focuses on core strategy.
Supportive ifThe sale of the triple net lease asset closes successfully.
Worry ifIf the sale is delayed or fails, it shows execution problems.