BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.46-5.72%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BRSP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BRSP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 27, 2026, BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial position as of September 30, 2026 and its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. On October 27, 2026, the Company made available a Supplemental Financial Disclosure Presentation fo…
Why it matters: New loans grew the book to about $3.1 billion, up over 30% year over year. More originations can support loan income growth.
Supportive ifQ4 committed loan originations exceed $272 million. The loan book grows from about $3.1 billion.
Worry ifQ4 committed loan originations fall below $272 million, or the loan book shrinks from about $3.1 billion.
Why it matters: Management is working to reduce REO and watchlist exposure. Further declines would show progress on troubled assets.
Supportive ifThe next reported results show lower REO exposure and a lower watchlist balance than the prior report.
Worry ifEither REO exposure or the watchlist balance rises from its prior reported level.
Why it matters: The sale closed in September and shifted assets out of owned real estate. Results can show whether loan income offsets lost property income.
Watch forIn a later report, distributable earnings rise above $0.08 per share. The loan book stays at or above about $3.1 billion.
Also watch forIn a later report, distributable earnings fall below $0.08 per share. The loan book drops below about $3.1 billion.
Why it matters: CLOs now fund nearly two thirds of the loan portfolio. Their cost affects the income left after borrowing costs.
Watch forThe next CLO closes. Management says its cost is no higher than the latest CLO. CLO funding stays near two thirds of the loan book.
Also watch forThe next CLO is delayed or costs more than the latest CLO, or CLO funding falls well below two thirds of the loan book.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $294 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,366 loss on $10,000 · 43.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.