Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sierra Bancorp (BSRR)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$41.96-2.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.79 → 3.95 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BSRR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share | Sierra Bancorp keeps paying a steady quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.26 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.27 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 0.26 USD per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 20260.27 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional financial company with a profitability and execution thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is intact: recent results are strong, though management execution is rated neutral and the evidence snapshot has medium confidence.
Valuation is broadly aligned with the model’s view, and the expectations gap is small. BSRR trades at a premium to peers, so the current setup appears justified rather than clearly cheap; the evidence does not point to concentrated valuation fragility.
Near term, profitability and deposit trends have been supportive: nine-month net income rose, deposit costs fell, and the efficiency ratio improved. Management is on track with profitability and deposit priorities, while expense discipline is mixed; a guidance cut remains a meaningful risk, and recent earnings surprises have been trending down.
The multi-year view depends on continued disciplined execution, deposit growth, and cost control. Near term, a guidance cut or Federal Reserve rate cuts could weigh on the business, while continued strong earnings and guidance from financial-sector peers could support sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, BSRR’s thesis rests on sustaining recent operating gains while managing rate and guidance risks. The latest performance supports an intact view, but the premium to peers leaves execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Sierra Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >=3.11 USD_PER_SHARE. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $3.11 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $1.18 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3.11 USD_PER_SHARE. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20261.18 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue decline no worse than -2% in next 12 months | A supporting condition in Sierra Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >= -2% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | Revenue decline exceeds -2% YoY | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.88 → $3.95 · observed estimates
$0.17B → $0.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.88 | $165,800,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.88 | $165,800,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.88 | $165,800,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.88 | $165,800,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.88 | $165,800,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.82 | $164,633,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.82 | $164,633,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.82 | $164,633,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.82 | $164,633,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.82 | $164,633,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.82 | $164,633,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.82 | $164,633,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.81 | $162,200,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.81 | $162,200,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.82 | $164,821,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.78 | $161,700,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.78 | $161,700,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.78 | $161,700,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.82 | $164,821,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.78 | $161,700,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.82 | $164,821,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.82 | $164,821,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.82 | $164,821,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.82 | $164,821,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.82 | $164,821,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.82 | $164,821,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.82 | $164,821,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.78 | $161,696,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.79 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.79 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.79 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.79 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.79 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.79 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.79 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.80 | $161,771,525 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.94 | $164,029,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.94 | $164,029,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.94 | $164,029,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.94 | $164,029,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.94 | $164,029,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.94 | $164,029,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.94 | $164,029,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.95 | $165,079,000 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.