Sierra Bancorp (BSRR)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$41.96-2.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BSRR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BSRR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-27
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On July 27, 2026, Sierra Bancorp issued a press release announcing its unaudited consolidated financial results for the three- and six-month periods ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report. The information in this report (including Exhibit 99.1) is being furnished pursuant to
Why it matters: Loan production hit its highest level since 2020, but loans fell 5% from year-end 2025. Growth would show that new lending is lifting balances.
Supportive ifQ4 gross loans rise from September 30, 2026, and are higher year over year.
Worry ifQ4 gross loans fall from September 30, 2026, or remain below the year-earlier level.
Why it matters: Q3 earnings included a reserve release tied mostly to a paid loan. Credit costs may look worse once that help is gone.
Worry ifThe next quarter shows a loan loss provision above zero and credit costs higher than Q3.
Less concerning ifThe next quarter shows no loan loss provision, while nonperforming loans stay at or below 0.38% of gross loans.
Why it matters: The board approved a new repurchase plan through October 31, 2027. Repurchases would show the company is using this capital plan.
Supportive ifA filing or earnings release reports shares bought under the new plan after October 31, 2026.
Worry ifA later filing or earnings release reports no shares bought under the new plan through its first two quarters.
Why it matters: Lower deposit costs helped lift the bank's margin. A rise could weaken that support.
Supportive ifThe next reported cost of total deposits stays below 1.30%.
Worry ifThe next reported cost of total deposits reaches or exceeds 1.30%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$74 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $210 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,529 loss on $10,000 · 15.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 margin reached 3.91%, up from 3.74% in Q2. A steady margin would support income as loan balances change.
Supportive ifThe next reported quarterly net interest margin is at least 3.8%.
Worry ifThe next reported quarterly net interest margin falls below 3.74%, the Q2 level.