Sierra Bancorp (BSRR)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$41.08+0.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BSRR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
BSRR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-27
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On July 27, 2026, Sierra Bancorp issued a press release announcing its unaudited consolidated financial results for the three- and six-month periods ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report. The information in this report (including Exhibit 99.1) is being furnished pursuant to
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good use of money. It shows the company is financially healthy.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share for Q2.
Worry ifThe Board cuts the dividend below $0.26 per share.
Why it matters: Increasing the dividend shows good use of money. It can help investor trust.
Supportive ifThe Board announces a dividend increase above $0.27 per share.
Worry ifThe Board maintains the dividend at $0.27 per share or lowers it.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth shows good management and high demand for loans, helping earnings.
Supportive ifLoan growth exceeds 5% compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifLoan growth is less than 2% compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good money management. It also shows care for shareholders.
Watch forThe next dividend announcement keeps the payout at $0.27 per share.
Also watch forThe next dividend announcement reduces the payout below $0.27 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$68 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $231 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,529 loss on $10,000 · 15.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if earnings per share continue to grow. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifDiluted earnings per share increases year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifDiluted earnings per share decreases or grows less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends impact the financial sector. A drop signals potential weakness.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median of 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median of 15%.
Why it matters: Hitting the EPS target shows the company is on track for growth. It can attract more investors.
Supportive ifEPS reaches or exceeds $3.11 for fiscal year 2026.
Worry ifEPS falls below $3.11 for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in net income shows possible problems with making money and growth.
Worry ifQ3 net income falls below $8.9 million, which is a 10% decline from Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income stays over $9.9 million. This shows steady or better profits.
Why it matters: The recent CFO leaving could affect financial plans and operations. Stable leadership builds investor trust.
Worry ifAppointment of a new CFO who has a strong track record in financial management.
Less concerning ifIf no new CFO is chosen in the next quarter, it may show instability.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change company strategy. This could affect earnings and investor trust.
Watch forFinancial results get much better after the CFO change.
Also watch forFinancial results get worse or stay the same after the CFO change.
Why it matters: EPS growth is a key priority. Confirmation shows the company is on track. A revision down could signal trouble.
Watch forManagement confirms EPS growth target of 10% or raises the low guidance above $3.11.
Also watch forManagement lowers EPS guidance to below $3.11 for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company cares about giving value to shareholders. A good payout builds trust in its finances.
Supportive ifThe dividend of $0.27 per share is paid on August 10, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key indicator of sector health. A drop may signal broader issues.
Worry ifSierra Bancorp reports revenue growth below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth is a top priority for management. Strong growth signals effective strategies.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted earnings per share growth exceeds 20% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 diluted earnings per share growth is less than 20% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: More deposits show strong customer trust and good banking plans.
Supportive ifTotal deposits grow more than 3% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifTotal deposits grow less than 3% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio shows better cost control. It also means smoother operations.
Supportive ifEfficiency ratio drops below 57% in Q3.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio stays above 57% in Q3.