BT BRANDS INC (BTBD)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.82+6.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Reverse operating losses from negative $232.8 million: metric not reported.
BT Brands aims to grow revenue above $2.8 billion next quarter despite recent declines. Management targets reversing operating losses from negative $232.8 million in 2026-Q1. Strategic partnerships and M&A could expand growth opportunities. Cash flow improvements from negative $97.7 million in 2026-Q1 would support liquidity.
Revenue fell from $4.35 billion in 2024-Q3 to $2.84 billion in 2026-Q1. Operating income dropped from positive $735 million to negative $232.8 million. Cash from operations swung from positive $384 million to negative $97.7 million. CFO departure and failed merger raise concerns about execution.
The price is about 17% below our fair value near $1.29. Analysts expect roughly 10% revenue growth, but the company’s recent declines and losses suggest risks to these expectations.
Breaks if: operating cash flow remains negative next 4 quarters
Focus on strengthening cash flow from operations to support financial flexibility and capital needs.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash from operating activities fluctuated, with negative cash flow in 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1 but positive cash flow in 2025-Q3 and 2026-Q2, improving to $215 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows mixed but improving cash flow generation.
“Cash from operating activities was positive $215,140 thousand.”
“Cash from operating activities was negative $97,650 thousand.”
“Cash from operating activities was negative $117,924 thousand.”
“Cash from operating activities was positive $325,177 thousand.”
Breaks if: operating income remains negative next 4 quarters
Focus on improving profitability through operating income and net income enhancements via cost control and operational efficiency.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating loss improved approximately 80% in 2025 compared to 2024, and operating income turned positive in 2026-Q2 after negative results in 2026-Q1. Net income also improved from negative $751 million in 2026-Q1 to positive $576 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering with significant improvement in profitability.
“Operating income improved to $117,205 thousand and net income to $576,433 thousand.”
“Operating income was negative $232,811 thousand and net income negative $751,011 thousand.”
“Operating loss improved approximately 80% to $(364,585) from $(1.8) million in 2024.”
Breaks if: quarterly revenue falls below $2.8 billion
Sustain and grow revenue levels to support business stability and future growth opportunities.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue showed variability but grew from $2.62 billion in 2025-Q4 to $3.55 billion in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is mixed with some quarters showing declines but overall growth into 2026-Q2, reflecting partial delivery on revenue stability and growth.
“Revenue was $3,550,865 thousand in 2026-Q2.”
“Revenue was $2,843,634 thousand in 2026-Q1.”
“Revenue was $2,622,184 thousand in 2025-Q4.”
“Revenue was $3,853,682 thousand in 2025-Q3.”
Breaks if: no new strategic partnerships or M&A activity next year
Continue evaluating strategic partnerships and merger opportunities to enhance shareholder value and reposition the company.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management advanced the proposed merger with Aero Velocity through 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1 but terminated the merger agreement in 2026-Q1, deciding to continue evaluating strategic opportunities. The trajectory is mixed with termination of the merger but ongoing pursuit of partnerships.
“BT Brands continues to advance its proposed merger with Aero Velocity, Inc.”
“BT Brands intends to continue evaluating opportunities to enhance shareholder value.”
“BT Brands continues to advance its previously announced definitive merger agreement with Aero Velocity, Inc.”
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving profitability and revenue growth. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial results have been weak, but there are signs of progress in management's priorities.
The market appears to price BTBD as justified but recognizes its cheapness compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that investors may have low confidence in the company's near-term performance.
Management has made strides in improving operating and net income, with significant improvements noted in recent quarters. However, revenue growth remains variable, which could affect stability in the near term.
The thesis hinges on external factors such as inflation trends and the performance of sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and CMG. Positive momentum in these companies could support BTBD, while any negative shifts could pose risks.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BTBD's performance will likely depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges and improve its financial metrics. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.