Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bitgo Holdings Inc (BTGO)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.76-12.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.12 → 0.12 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BTGO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage legal and regulatory challenges without material harm | A primary condition in Bitgo Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No material legal or regulatory penalties or restrictions in 2026. | Intact | Material legal penalties or regulatory restrictions announced in 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a smaller-cap financial business with a growth-and-improvement thesis, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: revenue growth is encouraging, but confidence is low, recent performance is weak, and risk is elevated.
The evidence does not provide a valuation level or clear market expectations, so whether BTGO is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. Price reaction to recent thesis changes has been muted, and the priced-in fragility assessment is low, but that does not establish what expectations are embedded.
Near term, revenue growth and a smaller net loss show progress, while losses remain significant and operating efficiency gains are limited. A guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk; recent CFO and COO transitions add uncertainty, and the announced acquisition has not yet been shown to affect results.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on continued client and revenue growth alongside more meaningful progress toward reducing losses. Near term, guidance and execution matter; the evidence also flags rate cuts as a sector headwind and continued strong results from sector bellwethers as a possible source of support.
BTGO has evidence of scaling, but the path to better operating results remains unproven, and confidence has fallen. The 1-3 year thesis hinges on growth translating into narrower losses without a guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Bitgo Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Modular infrastructure launched and major bank stablecoin partnerships active by mid-2026. |
| Intact |
| No meaningful adoption of new products or partnerships by mid-2026 |
Qualitative: Active bank stablecoin partnerships (Spark) & modular infra expansion (OKX) confirmed Spark tapped BitGo for stablecoins; OKX expanded settlement infrastructure; NYDIG acquired. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue grows to at least $3.77 billion in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in Bitgo Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.77 billion. | Improving | Total revenue falls below $3.77 billion in Q1 2026 | Revenue: $4.329B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.77 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 12, 20264,329,395,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Ed Reginelli, CFO of BitGo “Total Q2 revenue increased 14.7% sequentially and 79.6% year-over-year to approximately $4.3 billion in the second quarter.” “Q2 2026 Highlights • Clients on Platform, Normalized Assets on Platform, and Normalized Assets Staked increased 26%, 31%, and 36% year-over-year, respectively, reflecting continued growth in institutional adoption.” Revenue was $4.329 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Repurchase up to $50 million of shares under approved program | The company has a $50 million share buyback plan. | Intact | Buyback program canceled or no shares repurchased by end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.33 → $0.12 · observed estimates
$0.29B → $0.26B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.33 | $292,822,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.33 | $292,822,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.33 | $292,822,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.33 | $292,822,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.33 | $292,822,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.31 | $22,227,484,380 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.31 | $22,227,484,380 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.31 | $22,227,484,380 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.33 | $292,822,810 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.31 | $22,227,484,380 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.31 | $22,227,484,380 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.31 | $22,227,484,380 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.31 | $22,227,484,380 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.31 | $22,227,484,380 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.33 | $1,608,078,855 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.31 | $22,227,484,380 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.31 | $22,227,484,380 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.31 | $22,227,484,380 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.33 | $1,608,078,855 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.28 | $22,182,396,880 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.33 | $1,608,078,855 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.33 | $1,608,078,855 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.33 | $1,608,078,855 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.33 | $1,608,078,855 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.33 | $1,608,078,855 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.33 | $1,608,078,855 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.33 | $1,608,078,855 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.11 | $256,573,486 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.11 | $256,573,486 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.11 | $256,531,819 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.11 | $256,531,819 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.11 | $256,531,819 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.11 | $1,652,178,976 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.11 | $256,813,236 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.11 | $256,813,236 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.11 | $256,813,236 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.11 | $252,466,064 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.11 | $252,466,064 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.11 | $252,466,064 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.11 | $255,013,236 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.11 | $255,013,236 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.11 | $255,013,236 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.12 | $255,013,236 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.12 | $255,013,236 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.12 | $255,013,236 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.12 | $255,013,236 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.12 | $255,013,236 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.12 | $255,013,236 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.12 | $255,498,486 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.12 | $255,498,486 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.12 | $255,498,486 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.12 | $255,498,486 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.12 | $255,498,486 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.12 | $260,516,531 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.12 | $261,089,712 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.12 | $261,089,712 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.12 | $261,089,712 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.12 | $261,089,712 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.12 | $261,089,712 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.12 | $261,089,712 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.12 | $261,089,712 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.12 | $262,707,206 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.12 | $262,707,206 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.12 | $262,707,206 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.12 | $262,707,206 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.12 | $262,707,206 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.12 | $262,707,206 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.12 | $262,707,206 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.12 | $262,707,206 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.12 | $261,789,023 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.12 | $261,789,023 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.12 | $261,789,023 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.12 | $261,789,023 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.12 | $261,789,023 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.12 | $261,789,023 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.12 | $261,789,023 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.12 | $261,789,023 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.12 | $261,789,023 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.12 | $261,789,023 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.12 | $261,789,023 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.12 | $261,789,023 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.12 | $261,789,023 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.12 | $261,789,023 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.