Bitgo Holdings Inc (BTGO)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.76-12.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BTGO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -94.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 199 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 54.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 20 industry peers
BTGO — COO transition
Dated 2026-09-25
COO — Jody Mettler: The Chief Operating Officer is resigning, representing the loss of a senior executive without a named immediate successor in the filing.
Why it matters: The sales margin fell from 32 basis points in Q1 to 17 in Q2. A further drop would show more pressure on earnings from trading.
Worry ifQ3 digital asset sales margin is below 20 basis points.
Less concerning ifQ3 digital asset sales margin is 20 basis points or higher.
Why it matters: The deal adds trading clients and financing tools. Their use of BitGo's wider platform would show the deal is adding business.
Supportive ifBitGo reports that NYDIG clients use its custody, trading, or financing services. Client or platform asset counts rise.
Worry ifBitGo reports client losses, slow service setup, or no new use of its platform from the acquired business.
Why it matters: Stablecoin service revenue grew 1.7% from Q1 to Q2. Faster growth would support the case that this newer business can add to sales.
Supportive ifQ3 stablecoin service revenue grows more than 1.7% from Q2's $38.8 million.
Worry ifQ3 stablecoin service revenue is flat or lower than Q2's $38.8 million.
Why it matters: BitGo said its cost changes aim to save about $15 million a year. Lower costs would help offset weak earnings.
Supportive ifQ3 cash costs fall by at least $3.75 million from the prior run rate, with savings tied to the announced cost actions.
Worry ifQ3 costs show no clear savings from the announced actions, or BitGo reports that the $15 million annual target has changed.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$319 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,058 loss on $10,000 · 10.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,463 loss on $10,000 · 74.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: BitGo posted a $4.2 million adjusted EBITDA loss in Q2. A positive result would show progress toward stronger earnings.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is above $0.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is still below $0.