Armlogi Holding Corp (BTOC)
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.22-5.93%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BTOC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -65.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 42.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 107.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
BTOC — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-03
CFO — Mr. Sheng-Kai (Scott) Hsu: The CFO resigned due to personal reasons, and the company is searching for a permanent replacement.
Why it matters: Armlogi posted a gross loss in Q3 and across the first nine months. A return to profit at this level would show better control of service costs.
Supportive ifThe next results show gross profit and a gross margin above 0%.
Worry ifThe next results show another gross loss and a gross margin below -4.5%.
Why it matters: Warehousing grew 19.9% in the first nine months. More growth would show that newer sites keep gaining use.
Supportive ifThe next results show warehousing revenue growth above 19.9% year over year.
Worry ifThe next results show warehousing revenue growth below 7.3%, the Q3 rate.
Why it matters: Cash and restricted cash fell to $7.1 million by March 31, while operating cash use reached $5.5 million over nine months. A further drop would add pressure to funding the business.
Worry ifThe next reported cash and restricted cash total is below $7.1 million.
Less concerning ifThe next report shows a total above $7.1 million. Operating cash use is below $5.5 million for that period.
Why it matters: The report can show whether warehouse growth, delivery declines, and gross losses changed after March. These results test the company's shift in service mix.
Watch forThe November 12 report shows warehousing revenue growth above 7.3%. Gross margin is above 0%.
Also watch forThe November 12 report shows transportation revenue down more than 19.1% and gross margin below -4.5%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$273 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $758 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,099 loss on $10,000 · 81.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Platforms are bundling delivery, which has cut Armlogi's transportation sales. A deeper drop would add pressure to total revenue.
Worry ifThe next results show transportation revenue down more than 19.1% year over year.
Less concerning ifTransportation revenue is flat or grows year over year.
Why it matters: The latest quarter's loss grew from $3.8 million a year earlier. A larger loss would deepen the weak profit trend.
Worry ifThe next quarter's net loss is more than $5.1 million.
Less concerning ifThe next quarter's net loss is below $3.8 million, the year-earlier Q3 loss.