Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$0.72 → $0.72 · observed estimates
BrightView Holdings, Inc. (BV)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.78-1.67%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.72 → 0.72 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
No worsening of financial obligations or credit terms | A supporting condition in BrightView Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No new negative financial obligations. | Under Pressure | New large financial obligations or credit issues arise | New direct financial obligation created (Item 2.03) vs target of none Item 2.03 filing confirms creation of a direct financial obligation, violating the no-new-obligations target. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$0.72 → $0.72 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BV is a challenged growth business rather than a proven durable compounder, with a loss-making profile and elevated risk. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is raising revenue guidance, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation is slightly above peers, while the expectations gap is close to neutral and classified as justified. Valuation has recently declined, but the evidence does not show that expectations have reset enough to remove the execution risks.
Near term, revenue has continued to grow and management raised full-year revenue guidance, but margins remain pressured and adjusted free cash flow guidance was reduced. An earnings miss is a meaningful risk given the recent run of misses and industry weakness. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on turning revenue growth into stronger profitability and cash generation.
A guidance cut on the next call would deepen concerns about execution and estimates. Continued strength from sector bellwethers CTAS, CPRT, and ROL could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from them could remove that support. The central swing factor is whether BV can sustain revenue growth while improving cash flow.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BV’s thesis rests on converting steady revenue growth into profitable growth and better cash generation, against elevated earnings and sector risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income improves to positive $16.1 million in Q2 2026 |
| Operating income improved from a loss to $16 million in Q2. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operating income remains negative or falls below zero next year |
Operating income: $32.3M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $16.1M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 4, 202632,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “THIRD QUARTER FISCAL 2026 SUMMARY • Net service revenues increased 1.3% year-over-year to $717.6 million, including an increase in land maintenance revenue of 2.3%, • Net income decreased $26.2 million year-over-year to $6.1 million, Net Income margin of 0.9% • Adjusted EBITDA 2 decreased $17.1 million year-over-year to $96.1 million, Adjusted EBITDA margin 2 of 13.4%, o Fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA 2 includes $16 million non-routine self-insurance adjustment and $4 million fuel headwind.” Revenue was $717.600 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 2, 2026 |
Revenue grows to about $2.77 billion in fiscal 2026 | BrightView raised revenue guidance to about $2.77 billion for 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.68 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $717.6M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.77B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026717,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.87B → $2.87B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.72 | $2,868,734,582 | 1 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.