BorgWarner (BWA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$67.54+2.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BWA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
BWA — divestiture
Dated 2026-09-04
Regulation FD Disclosure In response to questions it has received, BorgWarner Inc. (the “Company”) reiterates its prior statements that the Company continues to expect turbine generator production to begin in Hendersonville, North Carolina in 2027, with an initial 2 GW of installed capacity. At present, the Company continues to expect turbine generator sales to be more than $300 million during the first year of production. Forward Looking Statements This Form 8-K may contain forward-looking s…
Why it matters: New awards are important for BorgWarner's long-term growth and steady revenue.
Supportive ifThe company announces at least three new major business awards in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new business awards are announced in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in earnings guidance show how management sees profits and efficiency. This affects how investors feel.
Watch forAn announcement increasing the adjusted earnings per share guidance for 2026 beyond the current range of $5.05 to $5.30.
Also watch forAn announcement lowers the earnings per share guidance for 2026 below the current range.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows confidence in earnings growth. This is true even with market pressures.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS guidance remains above $5.05 per diluted share.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS guidance drops below $5.00 per diluted share.
Why it matters: Sales trends in this segment are crucial for overall performance and growth outlook.
Worry ifSales in the Battery Energy Systems segment may stay steady or grow each year.
Less concerning ifSales in the Battery Energy Systems segment may drop more than $210 million each year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$161 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $320 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,380 loss on $10,000 · 23.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: How well the tender offers do will affect BorgWarner's debt and spending plans.
Watch forBorgWarner completes the tender offers for at least $720 million of its senior notes.
Also watch forThe tender offers do not attract enough interest. Many notes are still not sold.
Why it matters: New business awards help BorgWarner grow. They also help the company make money.
Supportive ifBorgWarner announces new business awards that fit its growth plans.
Worry ifNo new business awards are announced next quarter, which may show growth problems.
Why it matters: More share repurchases can show management's trust in the company's worth and raise earnings per share.
Supportive ifA press release announces an increase in the share repurchase program beyond $1.35 billion.
Worry ifA press release says there will be a pause or cut in share repurchase activity.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can show how well the company is doing financially.
Watch forAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.17 per share.
Also watch forAnnouncement of a dividend decrease or no change from $0.17 per share.
Why it matters: This means better cost control and more efficient operations.
Supportive ifOperating margin is over 10.7% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating margin is below 10.7% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The tender offers show how BorgWarner handles its debt and capital. This affects investor trust and financial health.
Watch forA press release says the company completed tender offers for at least $720 million of senior notes.
Also watch forA press release states that the tender offers did not succeed or had low interest.
Why it matters: An increase would show better cash handling and efficiency.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities goes up from $152 million in Q1 2026.
Worry ifCash from operating activities drops further from $152 million in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Organic sales trends will show how well the company can grow despite market issues.
Worry ifQ3 organic net sales decline worse than -3.5% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic net sales show growth or decline less than -1.5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Gross profit margin results will show if the company is making more money despite challenges.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves to above 10% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 9.5% in Q3 2026.