Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. (BWFG)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$70.23-4.15%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.92 → 6.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BWFG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend maintained at $0.20 per share | The company maintains a stable dividend of $0.20 per share. | Intact | Dividend cut below $0.20 per share | Dividend per share: $0.20 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $0.20 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20260.2 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional bank growth thesis, not a clear turnaround or a proven durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: management is delivering on loan growth and net interest income goals, but earnings quality is fragile and recent signals have weakened.
BWFG trades at a 1.45 premium to peers, with medium confidence in the valuation model and a 0.51 expectations gap. The premium suggests the market already assumes a degree of durable business strength, while the evidence labels the pricing fragility as low and the premium driver as durable expectations.
Near term, a recent earnings miss and a 58.6-point drop in company momentum weaken the picture, despite the prior quarter’s earnings beat. Through 2026-Q3, loans grew 5.0% year to date, net interest income rose sequentially, and management maintained loan-growth guidance while raising income guidance. A 27% miss probability is described as low, but the smaller-cap profile and consecutive misses remain risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on BWFG sustaining 5% to 7% loan growth and expanding net interest income while delivering against its updated guidance. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts from the current 3.88% could weigh on the sector; continued earnings strength from sector bellwethers would be a favorable signal.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BWFG has measurable growth delivery, but fragile earnings quality, a fresh miss, and weaker momentum leave the thesis dependent on continued execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It plans to increase non-interest income to $12-$13 million. |
| Intact |
| Non-interest income falls below $12 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $111.5 million in FY26 | Bankwell Financial Group aims to grow revenue to about $111.5 million in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $97 million in FY26 | Revenue: $951,000 FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$111.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026951,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.59 → $6.62 · observed estimates
$0.13B → $0.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.59 | $132,868,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.59 | $132,868,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.59 | $132,868,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.59 | $132,868,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.59 | $132,868,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.92 | $138,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.92 | $138,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.92 | $138,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.92 | $138,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.92 | $138,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.92 | $138,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.92 | $138,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.92 | $138,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.92 | $138,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.92 | $138,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.92 | $138,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.92 | $138,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.92 | $138,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.92 | $138,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.92 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.93 | $138,466,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.38 | $145,018,333 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.62 | $147,979,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.62 | $147,979,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.62 | $147,979,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.62 | $147,979,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.62 | $147,979,667 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.