Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (The) (BWIN)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$30.88-1.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Baldwin Insurance aims for $1.5B revenue in 2025. Sales grew from $329.9M to $532.2M in recent quarters. Management targets double-digit organic growth by end of 2026. Analysts expect earnings per share of $2.01 in 2026.
The company is still loss making and missed earnings in early 2026. Free cash flow is negative. Growth may slow if acquisitions and integration fail.
The price is about 2% below our fair value near $28. Analysts expect 23% revenue growth. Our fair value is 21% below the Street median, so weigh the Street range carefully.
Breaks if: EPS growth falls below 11% YoY next year
Breaks if: organic growth falls below 10% by end of 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround scenario. BWIN is currently loss-making, with mixed signals from management on growth and earnings, indicating a cautious outlook.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that BWIN's current valuation reflects a justified stance given its recent performance. It trades at a premium compared to peers, indicating that investors may have some confidence in its potential recovery.
Management is focused on accelerating organic growth and increasing adjusted earnings per share (EPS), with some recent success in these areas. However, the company has shown weak financial performance recently, which raises concerns about its ability to maintain momentum.
The future of BWIN will depend on its ability to meet management's growth targets and the performance of sector bellwethers like MRSH, AON, and AJG. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable environment for BWIN, while any negative shifts could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue to drive accelerating organic revenue growth, targeting double-digit organic growth run rate by end of 2026.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Organic revenue growth was 2% year-over-year in 2026-Q2 and normalized organic growth was approximately 9% in 2026-Q1. Management's statements and the reported organic growth metrics show the company is delivering on accelerating organic growth as targeted.
“We continue to win market share at an outsized rate, evidenced by sales velocity of 30% and normalized organic growth of 8%.”
“We remain firmly on track to deliver accelerating organic growth through the year, exiting 2026 on a double-digit organic growth run rate.”
Breaks if: total revenue falls below $1.5B in FY25
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BWIN's performance will be closely tied to its execution on growth initiatives and broader sector trends. Not investment advice.