Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (The) (BWIN)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$31.97-0.53%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.48 → 2.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BWIN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted diluted EPS grows by 11% year-over-year | A supporting condition in Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 11% YoY EPS growth. | Recovered | EPS growth falls below 11% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk transformation and transaction-driven business, not yet a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis remains in a watch state: the signal improved from cautious to mixed, but financial performance is weak and earnings are loss-making.
The valuation model has low confidence and shows BWIN trading at a 2.15 premium to peers, with an expectations gap of -0.14. The valuation tag is justified and fragility is low, but the evidence does not show that the market is pricing in a clear recovery.
Near-term results remain weak: preliminary 2026-Q3 revenue was $480.3 million and the net loss was $81.6 million, while the latest earnings event was in line. Organic growth improved from 2% year over year in 2026-Q2 to 6% in Q3, but the stated goal of a double-digit exit run rate is not yet established; transformation costs also rose year over year, without quantified savings. Risks include possible guidance cuts, recent peer misses, and a pending transaction that has not been shown to close.
The multi-year thesis depends on organic growth continuing to improve and the Catalyst program showing measurable operating results. Near-term, a guidance cut would be a negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum; rate cuts are a stated sector risk. Completion of the take-private transaction remains another key uncertainty, and the recent litigation filing adds a risk to monitor.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BWIN’s thesis hinges on growth progress becoming durable, transformation efforts producing evidence of benefits, and the pending transaction advancing. Losses, weak performance, and execution uncertainty keep the long-term view cautious despite the recent improvement in the signal. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management targets double-digit organic growth by end of 2026. |
| Intact |
| organic growth falls below 10% by end of 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"Total revenue grew 29% to $532.2 million and adjusted EBITDA grew 21% to $137.2 million, reflecting strong early contributions from our January partnerships, led by CAC Group, alongside continued execution across our core operating groups.” “When combined with the strong contribution from our recent partnerships, we continue to win market share at an outsized rate, evidenced by sales velocity of 30% in our combined IAS business and normalized organic growth of 8%.” Revenue was $532.235 million in 2026-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Total revenue reaches at least $1.5 billion in 2025 | A primary condition in Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.5B total revenue. | Intact | total revenue falls below $1.5B in FY25 | Revenue: $492.939M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.5B total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 2026492,939,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.50 → $2.48 · observed estimates
$2.20B → $2.20B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.50 | $2,200,446,670 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.50 | $2,200,446,670 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.50 | $2,200,446,670 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.50 | $2,200,446,670 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.50 | $2,200,446,670 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.50 | $2,200,446,670 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.50 | $2,200,446,670 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.50 | $2,200,446,670 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.50 | $2,200,446,670 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.50 | $2,200,446,670 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.50 | $2,204,045,960 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.50 | $2,204,045,960 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.49 | $2,205,622,610 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.49 | $2,205,622,610 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.51 | $2,199,728,628 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.49 | $2,205,685,110 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.49 | $2,205,685,110 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.49 | $2,205,685,110 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.49 | $2,205,685,110 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.49 | $2,207,607,610 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.51 | $2,199,728,628 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.51 | $2,199,728,628 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.51 | $2,199,728,628 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.51 | $2,199,728,628 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.51 | $2,199,728,628 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.51 | $2,199,728,628 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.51 | $2,199,728,628 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.49 | $2,203,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.49 | $2,203,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.49 | $2,203,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.49 | $2,203,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.49 | $2,203,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.49 | $2,203,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.48 | $2,211,164,158 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.48 | $2,202,752,181 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.48 | $2,202,752,181 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.48 | $2,202,752,181 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.48 | $2,202,752,181 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.48 | $2,202,752,181 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.48 | $2,202,752,181 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.48 | $2,202,752,181 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.48 | $2,202,752,181 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.48 | $2,202,697,895 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.48 | $2,202,704,752 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.48 | $2,200,619,902 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.48 | $2,200,619,902 | 6 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.