Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (The) (BWIN)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.14+0.47%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BWIN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 22.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BWIN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 27, 2026, The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing selected preliminary financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. In addition, on October 27, 2026, the Company posted on its website a preliminary earnings supplement disclosing certain additional selected preliminary financial results…
Why it matters: Organic growth rose from 2% in Q2 to 6% in preliminary Q3 results. Final results will show whether that gain holds.
Supportive ifThe final Q3 report confirms organic revenue growth at or above 6% year over year.
Worry ifThe final Q3 report revises organic revenue growth below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: The company reported $12.421 million of program costs in the first nine months of 2026. Results on savings would show whether the spending is producing clear gains.
Supportive ifA company update gives the dollar savings from the $3B/30 program. It reports lower costs or better results tied to the program.
Worry ifA company update reports higher program costs, but no clear savings or gains in operations.
Why it matters: The preliminary margin rose to 22.2%, up from 19.8% a year earlier. A lower final result would weaken this sign of improved earnings.
Supportive ifThe final Q3 report shows an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22% or more.
Worry ifThe final Q3 report shows an adjusted EBITDA margin below 22%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $506 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,213 loss on $10,000 · 42.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.