Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (The) (BWIN)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$30.88-1.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BWIN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BWIN — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2026, The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act o…
Why it matters: Revenue growth below this level may signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Baldwin's growth trajectory.
Worry ifBaldwin's Q2 revenue growth prints below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: This would confirm management's goal of accelerating organic growth. It shows strong demand and market share gains.
Supportive ifOrganic revenue growth reported above 8% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth reported below 2% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change financial plans and reporting.
Watch forFinancial reports after the change show they are stable or getting better.
Also watch forFinancial reports after the change show more problems or errors.
Why it matters: The CFO change may affect financial plans. Stability is important for investor trust.
Watch forThe new CFO gave positive comments about financial plans and performance.
Also watch forThere is negative feedback or doubt about the CFO's plans.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$236 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $539 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,903 loss on $10,000 · 49.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sector growth could impact Baldwin's growth trajectory.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains at or above 15%.
Why it matters: Hitting the $1.5B revenue goal would prove Baldwin's growth plan and management's work.
Supportive ifRevenue reported at or above $1.5B for the fiscal year 2025.
Worry ifRevenue reported below $1.5B for the fiscal year 2025.
Why it matters: This raises worries about cash flow and efficiency. It shows how well the company makes money.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported above $40 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations reported below $40 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Better organic growth shows the company is gaining market share and doing well.
Supportive ifOrganic revenue growth is over 5% year-over-year in the next quarter.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth stays at or below 2% year-over-year.
Why it matters: This shows good cost management. It means the company is financially healthy.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS growth reported above 10% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS growth reported below 0% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: A rise in adjusted EPS shows stronger profits and better operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS exceeds $0.50 in the next quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS falls below $0.48 in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in total revenue growth may mean weaker demand or problems.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth falls below 25% year-over-year in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue growth is more than 30% each year.
Why it matters: New partnerships could drive growth and improve market position.
Supportive ifA new partnership is announced. It is expected to add at least $50 million in revenue.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced that contribute to revenue in the next quarter.