Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Blackstone Inc. (BX)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$119.82-4.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.44 → 7.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Assets Under Management grow to $1.304 trillion | Blackstone grows assets under management by 12% to $1.3 trillion. | Intact | AUM falls below $1.127 trillion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BX is a large alternative investment manager with a growth-oriented, durable business profile, supported by rising assets under management and continued inflows. The long-term thesis is intact, though recent company momentum has weakened and the risk level is elevated.
BX is valued at a substantial premium to peers, reflecting expectations that its business advantages can persist. The evidence labels that premium as justified, with low fragility, but the expectations gap is positive, so sustained execution matters.
Over the multi-year view, rising assets and continued fundraising support growth, while expansion in private equity and infrastructure adds to the platform. Near term, the latest quarter showed strong results and an earnings beat, but deployment was lower than the prior quarter, momentum fell, and peers have had recent earnings misses.
The thesis depends on BX continuing to raise funds, grow assets, and sustain investment and realization activity. A guidance cut or rate cuts would be unfavorable, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
BX’s 1-3 year thesis remains intact, backed by strong recent performance and fundraising, but its expensive valuation and elevated risk make continued execution central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company returns $1.5 billion to shareholders each quarter. |
| Intact |
| Capital return falls below $1.5 billion per quarter |
Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Fee Related Earnings grow to $1.5 billion | Fee earnings rose 23% to $1.5 billion. | Intact | Fee Related Earnings fall below $1.3 billion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Realized Performance Revenues grow 70% to $780 million | Performance revenues grew 70% year over year. | Improving | Performance revenues grow less than 0% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.43 → $7.31 · observed estimates
$18.56B → $18.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.43 | $18,561,918,110 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.44 | $18,574,729,810 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.44 | $18,574,729,810 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.46 | $18,595,195,420 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.46 | $18,595,195,420 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.47 | $18,622,128,970 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.47 | $18,622,128,970 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.47 | $18,622,128,970 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.47 | $18,622,128,970 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.47 | $18,622,128,970 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.43 | $18,193,576,456 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.49 | $18,622,128,970 | 23 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.49 | $18,622,128,970 | 23 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.49 | $18,622,128,970 | 23 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.43 | $18,193,576,456 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.49 | $18,622,128,970 | 23 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.49 | $18,622,128,970 | 23 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.43 | $18,193,576,456 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.49 | $18,622,128,970 | 23 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.49 | $18,622,128,970 | 23 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.43 | $18,193,576,456 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.43 | $18,193,576,456 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.43 | $18,193,576,456 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.43 | $18,193,576,456 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.43 | $18,193,576,456 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.43 | $18,193,576,456 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.43 | $18,193,576,456 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.45 | $18,278,001,134 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.45 | $18,278,001,134 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.45 | $18,278,001,134 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.45 | $18,278,001,134 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.45 | $18,278,001,134 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.45 | $18,278,001,134 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.45 | $18,278,001,134 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.45 | $18,278,001,134 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.45 | $18,278,001,134 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.43 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.43 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.43 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.43 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.43 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.43 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.43 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.43 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.43 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.43 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.43 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.43 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.43 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.43 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.43 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.48 | $18,160,473,071 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.47 | $18,079,963,401 | 16 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.46 | $18,158,651,832 | 17 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.46 | $18,158,651,832 | 17 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.44 | $18,158,651,832 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.42 | $18,158,651,832 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.42 | $18,155,736,447 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.41 | $18,155,736,447 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.41 | $18,155,736,447 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.41 | $18,155,736,447 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.41 | $18,140,721,062 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.41 | $18,140,721,062 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.41 | $18,140,721,062 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.39 | $18,098,166,970 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.39 | $18,098,166,970 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.39 | $18,071,095,223 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.39 | $18,071,095,223 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.39 | $18,071,095,223 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.39 | $18,071,095,223 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.38 | $18,500,586,066 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.38 | $18,500,284,701 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.37 | $18,500,284,701 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.37 | $18,562,894,583 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.36 | $18,498,399,917 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.36 | $18,498,399,917 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.36 | $18,498,399,917 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.36 | $18,498,399,917 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.36 | $18,498,399,917 | 17 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.36 | $18,498,399,917 | 17 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.31 | $18,476,566,583 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.31 | $18,476,566,583 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.31 | $18,476,566,583 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.31 | $18,476,566,583 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.31 | $18,476,566,583 | 17 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.31 | $18,476,566,583 | 17 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
3 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.