Blackstone Inc. (BX)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$136.15-1.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Blackstone grows assets under management by 12% to $1.3 trillion. Fee earnings rose 23% to $1.5 billion. Performance revenues grew 70% year over year. The company returns $1.5 billion to shareholders each quarter.
Redemption requests and withdrawal limits may reduce fee earnings. Earnings missed estimates in Q1 2026. Capital deployment progress is mixed. These could slow growth and returns.
The price is about 21% above our fair value near $100. Analysts expect 18% revenue growth. Our fair value is 36% below the Street median price.
Breaks if: AUM falls below $1.127 trillion
Breaks if: Capital return falls below $1.5 billion per quarter
Breaks if: Fee Related Earnings fall below $1.3 billion
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
BX is positioned as a durable compounder with a focus on increasing revenues and assets under management. The current thesis state is watchful, reflecting recent strong performance but acknowledging medium confidence due to potential risks.
The market appears to be pricing in a durable premium compared to peers, indicating high expectations for BX's continued performance. There is a notable expectations gap, suggesting that investors are anticipating robust growth despite the current valuation being considered expensive.
Management has shown consistent progress in increasing realized performance revenues, assets under management, and fee-related earnings. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, although recent trends in earnings surprises have been declining.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like BLK, KKR, and APO. If these companies continue to exceed earnings expectations, it could support BX's performance, while any negative guidance from them could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this view. Global private credit fundraising is recovering, which enhances assets under management. Blackstone's partnership with NVIDIA for AI infrastructure financing may expand fee streams. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Performance revenues grow less than 0%
In the next 1 to 3 years, BX's performance will depend on its ability to maintain growth amidst sector dynamics and manage risks effectively. Not investment advice.