Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$11.45-1.55%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.42 → 0.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BXMT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities at or above $169.7 million | Blackstone Mortgage Trust manages cash well, with $169.7 million from operations in Q1 2026. | Under Pressure | cash from operating activities falls below $150 million next quarter | Cash from operations: $-18.457M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=169,700,000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 2026-18,457,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BXMT is a high-risk, earnings-sensitive financial business rather than a steady compounder. Its thesis state is listed as intact, but confidence is low and recent results have materially weakened momentum.
The valuation evidence describes BXMT as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is high. That suggests the market already reflects substantial concern, but the supplied evidence does not explain the specific expectations behind that gap.
Near term, losses and a recent earnings miss leave performance vulnerable, even though recent financial performance is rated strong relative to the industry. Management has repeated priorities around dividend coverage and portfolio turnover, but delivery is mixed; the fourth-quarter dividend was declared at $0.30 per share alongside a $327 million quarterly net loss.
The next call is a key near-term test: a guidance cut would add to concerns, while the evidence also flags rate cuts as a possible headwind. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on management improving earnings power, supporting dividend coverage, and showing progress in reallocating capital; continued strength among sector peers could help the backdrop.
For the 1-3 year view, BXMT remains a low-confidence, elevated-risk thesis with a peer-relative valuation cushion but clear pressure on earnings and the dividend. Its direction depends on whether management can turn stated priorities into stronger results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS recovers to at least $0.37 next quarter | A primary condition in Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0.37 USD per share. | Broken | EPS falls below $0.30 next quarter | Diluted EPS: $-1.95 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.37 USD per share. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 29, 2026-1.95 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income improves from negative $6.3 million | The company aims to improve its negative net income, which was -$6.3 million in Q1 2026. | Broken | net income remains negative through FY26 | Net income: $-327.005M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: net income >= 0 USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026-327,005,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stabilizes near $94 million next quarter | A supporting condition in Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=94,000,000 USD. | Broken | revenue falls below $85 million next quarter | Revenue: $358.095M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=94,000,000 USD. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 29, 2026358,095,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.95 → $0.90 · observed estimates
$0.34B → $0.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.95 | $344,966,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.95 | $344,966,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.95 | $344,966,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.95 | $344,966,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.95 | $344,966,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.95 | $344,966,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.95 | $344,966,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.68 | $512,456,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.86 | $343,725,000 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.76 | $312,966,670 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.76 | $312,966,670 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.74 | $312,966,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.63 | $312,966,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.63 | $312,966,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.64 | $566,108,012 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.64 | $566,108,012 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.55 | $291,600,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.64 | $566,108,012 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.55 | $291,600,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.55 | $291,600,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.64 | $566,108,012 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.64 | $566,108,012 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.64 | $566,108,012 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.64 | $566,108,012 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.64 | $566,108,012 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.64 | $566,108,012 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.64 | $566,108,012 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.52 | $553,674,679 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.52 | $553,674,679 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.52 | $553,674,679 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.52 | $553,674,679 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.52 | $553,674,679 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.52 | $553,674,679 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.49 | $561,531,009 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.43 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.43 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.43 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.43 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.43 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.42 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.41 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.41 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.40 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.40 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.40 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.40 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.40 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.40 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.40 | $568,233,333 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.37 | $570,143,331 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.37 | $570,143,331 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.37 | $570,143,331 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.37 | $570,143,331 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.37 | $570,143,331 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.37 | $570,143,331 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.37 | $570,143,331 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.37 | $570,143,331 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.37 | $570,143,331 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.37 | $570,143,331 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.37 | $570,143,331 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.37 | $570,143,331 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.36 | $581,409,997 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.39 | $567,833,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.39 | $567,833,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.39 | $567,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.10 | $555,890,247 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.90 | $555,890,247 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.90 | $555,890,247 | 5 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.