Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.20+0.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BXMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -62.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BXMT — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-05-19
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Why it matters: A reduction in net loss would show BXMT is improving its financial health. Investors want to see progress.
Supportive ifNet loss in Q2 is less than $6.3 million.
Worry ifNet loss in Q2 is greater than $6.3 million.
Why it matters: A rise in net income shows better profits after a recent loss.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 is positive or shows much less loss than Q2's $81.2 million.
Worry ifNet income remains negative or worsens compared to Q2's $81.2 million loss.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good cash flow and care for shareholders. A cut may mean money problems.
Supportive ifBXMT declares a dividend of $0.47 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifBXMT announces a reduction in the dividend below $0.47 per share.
Why it matters: A recovery in net income would show BXMT is addressing its financial challenges. This is crucial for long-term growth.
Supportive ifNet income is positive in Q2. This shows good management of financial problems.
Worry ifNet income is still negative or gets worse. This shows ongoing financial troubles.
Why it matters: The debt issuance can affect BXMT's financial flexibility and cost of capital. How it uses the funds will be key.
Watch forBXMT uses the money to pay off its secured debts.
Also watch forBXMT fails to manage debt levels or incurs higher costs due to the new debt.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows care for shareholders. It shows the company is stable.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.47 for Q3.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut below $0.47 in Q3.
Why it matters: A big rise in net income shows better profits. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income approaches breakeven, less than -$6 million in Q3.
Worry ifNet income remains negative, worse than -$6 million in Q3.
Why it matters: More cash flow shows better management. This helps with growth and stability.
Supportive ifCash from operations is over $170 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash from operations is below $170 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Faster portfolio turnover shows good use of capital. This can lead to better results.
Watch forManagement says there is good progress in portfolio turnover in Q3.
Also watch forNo clear progress in portfolio turnover was seen in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$99 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $231 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,210 loss on $10,000 · 32.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.