Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$11.45-1.55%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BXMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -67.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BXMT — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-05-19
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Why it matters: The net loss grew from $81.2 million in Q2 to $327 million in Q3. Another larger loss would point to deeper pressure on earnings and capital.
Worry ifBXMT reports a Q4 net loss attributable to the company above $327 million.
Less concerning ifBXMT reports a Q4 net loss below $327 million or reports net income.
Why it matters: BXMT cut its declared dividend from the $0.47 paid in Q3 to $0.30 for Q4. The payment and next dividend decision can show whether that lower level holds.
Watch forBXMT pays $0.30 per share on Jan. 15, 2027, and declares a later dividend of at least $0.30.
Also watch forBXMT does not pay the $0.30 dividend on Jan. 15, 2027, or declares a later dividend below $0.30.
Why it matters: BXMT announced notes due in 2031, with some proceeds set for paying down secured debt. A completed deal would confirm the financing step; a failure to close would leave it unresolved.
Supportive ifA company filing or release confirms it issued the $450 million notes. It also confirms some proceeds paid secured debt.
Worry ifBXMT withdraws the notes offer or does not disclose completion of the $450 million issue.
Why it matters: Q3 distributable EPS was $0.38, while the Q4 dividend is $0.30. A fall below the payout would weaken dividend coverage.
Worry ifQ4 distributable EPS is below the declared Q4 dividend of $0.30 per share.
Less concerning ifQ4 distributable EPS is at least $0.30 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$122 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $276 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,955 loss on $10,000 · 49.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management has named faster portfolio turnover and capital shifts as priorities. Named deals would show progress; no deals would leave that plan unproven.
Supportive ifA results release names loan sales and new investments, with the value of each disclosed.
Worry ifThe next results release names no loan sales or new investments and gives no turnover amount.