Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-30 · fmp
Byrna Technologies, Inc. (BYRN)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.74-10.10%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BYRN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stabilize executive leadership after recent departures | A supporting condition in Byrna Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is no further unexpected executive departures in next 4 quarters. | Intact | additional key executive departures occur | 0 unexpected executive departures vs 0 target News and filings confirm routine governance actions only; no senior management departures reported in the last 4 quarters. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is in a watch state: management is working on retail reach, brand awareness, and margins, but recent financial performance remains weak.
The valuation signal is cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain demanding relative to the model. Model confidence is low, and the valuation measure has risen recently; priced-in fragility is low, but that does not remove the business risks.
Near term, revenue has declined across the reported quarters, while adjusted gross margin improved and inventory decreased. Retail and marketing efforts show early signs of traction, but results are mixed, and a guidance cut or another erratic earnings result is a meaningful risk.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether retail expansion and broader customer reach can stabilize revenue while margin gains continue without relying on one-time items. Near term, BYRN’s outlook also depends on its next guidance and on whether industrial bellwethers continue to report strong results or begin weakening.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis has some support from margin progress and early customer-engagement signs, but weak revenue, high risk, and uncertain execution keep it in a watch state. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improve gross and operating margins in fiscal 2026 |
| Byrna aims to improve profit margins in 2026 as startup costs end. |
| Broken |
| gross profit and operating income do not improve over FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of approximately $29 million in 2026-Q1 and grow thereafter | A primary condition in Byrna Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue >= $29M in 2026-Q1 and grow in following quarters. | Broken | revenue falls below $29M in 2026-Q1 or declines thereafter | Revenue: $15.296M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: revenue >= $29M in 2026-Q1 and grow in following quarters. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 8, 202615,296,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.22 → $-0.22 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.22 | $93,956,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.22 | $93,956,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.22 | $93,956,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.22 | $93,956,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.22 | $93,956,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.22 | $93,956,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.22 | $93,956,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.22 | $93,956,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.22 | $93,956,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.22 | $93,956,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.22 | $93,956,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.22 | $93,956,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.22 | $93,956,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.22 | $93,956,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.22 | $93,956,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.13 | $94,771,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.18 | $88,698,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.18 | $88,698,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.20 | $85,699,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.20 | $85,699,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.20 | $85,699,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.22 | $83,924,250 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.