Byrna Technologies, Inc. (BYRN)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.74-10.10%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BYRN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -52.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BYRN — capital allocation
Dated 2026-08-10
On the Closing Date, the Company issued an aggregate of 104,000 shares of its common stock, constituting the Stock Consideration under the Purchase Agreement, at the direction of Hero, to Hero’s two members. The shares were issued in a private placement in reliance upon the exemption from registration provided by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act, in a transaction not involving any public offering and without any form of general solicitation or general advertising. Each recipient delivere…
Why it matters: Lower inventory can free up cash. Management said holiday sales could speed the stock reduction and improve cash flow.
Supportive ifInventory falls below $30.0 million in the next reported quarter. Cash flow also improves.
Worry ifInventory stays at or above $30.0 million, or cash declines from the Q3 level of $9.4 million.
Why it matters: Management tied stronger holiday sell-through to better sales and cash flow. Q3 revenue fell 46% year over year.
Supportive ifIn the next results, revenue rises above $15.3 million and dealer reorders pick up.
Worry ifRevenue stays at or below $15.3 million, with slow dealer reorders or weak holiday sales.
Why it matters: More visits and completed orders can help repair Byrna's online sales. Q3 revenue fell as e-commerce sales declined.
Supportive ifA company update reports over 29,000 website visits per day. Conversion is above August levels.
Worry ifDaily sessions fall below 29,000 or website conversion drops from August levels.
Why it matters: The Q3 margin gain came from better product mix and factory gains, but a tariff refund lifted reported margin. The next results can test whether gains last.
Supportive ifAdjusted gross margin stays above 65% in the next reported quarter. This excludes one-time refunds.
Worry ifAdjusted gross margin falls below 65% in the next reported quarter.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$252 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $739 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,383 loss on $10,000 · 83.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.