Byrna Technologies, Inc. (BYRN)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.68+7.92%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BYRN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 22.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 56 industry peers
BYRN — capital allocation
Dated 2026-08-10
On the Closing Date, the Company issued an aggregate of 104,000 shares of its common stock, constituting the Stock Consideration under the Purchase Agreement, at the direction of Hero, to Hero’s two members. The shares were issued in a private placement in reliance upon the exemption from registration provided by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act, in a transaction not involving any public offering and without any form of general solicitation or general advertising. Each recipient delivere…
Why it matters: Management guided $29 million for 2026-Q1. Consistency in guidance is key for investor trust.
Supportive ifManagement guides revenue for 2026-Q2 at or above $29 million.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue guidance for 2026-Q2 to below $29 million.
Why it matters: More reorder activity shows stronger demand. This helps keep revenue stable.
Supportive ifRetail reorder activity increases by at least 15% in Q3 compared to Q2.
Worry ifRetail reorder activity goes down or stays the same in Q3.
Why it matters: Recent departures can change the company's path. This may lower investor confidence.
Watch forAppointment of a new President and CEO who is well-regarded in the industry.
Also watch forMore executives are leaving. There are issues in leadership roles.
Why it matters: This acquisition could expand Byrna's product range and attract new customers. It may help improve sales and market presence.
Supportive ifThe deal will close in 30 days. There will be no regulatory delays.
Worry ifThe deal does not close. This is due to regulatory issues or other problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$330 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $709 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,849 loss on $10,000 · 88.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: E-commerce sales growth is key for Byrna's recovery. A rebound shows more consumer interest.
Supportive ifE-commerce sales grow year over year by at least 10% in Q3.
Worry ifE-commerce sales continue to decline year over year.
Why it matters: Management targets 35% to 40% growth for fiscal 2025. Full-year results are needed to confirm.
Watch forFiscal 2025 revenue exceeds $27.36M, confirming 35% growth.
Also watch forFiscal 2025 revenue is below $27.36M, indicating growth below 35%.
Why it matters: Higher conversion rates mean better customer engagement. This can lead to more sales for Byrna.
Supportive ifE-commerce conversion rates rise above 30%. This happens due to website changes and marketing efforts.
Worry ifE-commerce sales rates are under 20%. This shows problems with customer interest.
Why it matters: Less inventory shows better use of working capital and meets demand.
Supportive ifInventory levels fall below $30.4 million by the end of Q3.
Worry ifInventory levels are still above $30.4 million. This shows too much supply.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it may signal a recovery in the industrial sector. This could help Byrna's performance.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the industrial sector rises above 7%.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth in the industrial sector stays below 5%.
Why it matters: Retail revenue growth is key to Byrna's recovery. A strong performance can signal improved sell-through and conversion.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 retail revenue shows growth compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 2026 retail revenue declines further compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Stable revenue means Byrna is fixing sales drops. This leads to better store performance.
Watch forQ3 revenue stabilizes or grows compared to last year. This shows better retail and e-commerce performance.
Also watch forQ3 revenue keeps declining compared to last year. This confirms ongoing sales challenges.
Why it matters: Byrna's performance may depend on how it compares to stronger peers like RTX and GE. Weakness could hurt investor confidence.
Watch forByrna's insight score goes up to over 2.0.
Also watch forByrna's insight score drops below 1.0.
Why it matters: New leaders can change how the company works. Stability is very important.
Worry ifNew leaders are in place and show good changes in company performance.
Less concerning ifPerformance keeps getting worse or more leaders leave the company.
Why it matters: Recent leaders leaving can change company plans. This can hurt employee morale. Stability matters.
Supportive ifNew leadership is appointed and remains in place for at least 6 months.
Worry ifMore executive departures could happen in the next 6 months.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company meets its revenue guidance. This impacts investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows revenue above $29M.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report shows revenue below $29M.
Why it matters: Management aims to improve margins as startup costs finish. Current margins are weak.
Supportive ifGross profit improves from $17.40M in 2026-Q1 to above $21.06M in 2026-Q2.
Worry ifGross profit declines further below $17.40M in 2026-Q2.
Why it matters: Lower inventory levels help cash flow. This cuts costs and helps Byrna's finances.
Supportive ifInventory levels decrease to below $30 million as Byrna works down excess stock.
Worry ifInventory levels stay above $30 million. This shows ongoing issues with sales and production.
Why it matters: The acquisition could help Byrna offer more products and boost sales.
Supportive ifSales from HERO Defense products help overall revenue within six months.
Worry ifSales from HERO Defense products do not help or hurt revenue.
Why it matters: Higher revenue would show that demand is recovering after a big drop in Q2.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue exceeds $16.4 million, indicating a rebound from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is still under $16.4 million. This confirms weak demand continues.
Why it matters: Higher conversion rates mean more new customers. This helps boost sales.
Supportive ifConversion rates from the program are over 30%. This shows strong customer interest.
Worry ifConversion rates are below 30%. This suggests the program is not working.
Why it matters: Better gross margins show good cost control. This means better efficiency.
Supportive ifGross margin is over 11% in Q3. This shows recovery from Q2's drop.
Worry ifGross margin is below 11%. This confirms cost pressures are still a problem.