Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cable One (CABO)
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.26+8.01%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
14.79 → 14.79 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CABO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt repayments of at least $90M quarterly | Management focuses on sharpening execution and managing debt, with $90M repayments in 2026-Q1. | Intact | debt repayments fall below $90M | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• The Company paid down an aggregate $62.8 million principal amount of debt during the second quarter of 2026, consisting of repurchases of $45.6 million aggregate principal amount of senior notes, $12.8 million of term loan prepayments and $4.4 million of scheduled amortization payments.” “The Company’s gross debt balance was $3.06 billion and $3.21 billion at June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, respectively.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a challenged communications business with a recovery-dependent long-term thesis, rather than a clear durable compounder. Its state is watch, and the recent signal improved from cautious to mixed, but the evidence for a financial turnaround is limited.
CABO is described as cheap versus peers, while the valuation model shows a negative expectations gap, meaning market expectations sit below the model’s baseline. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, but confidence is medium and the snapshot does not provide enough detail to say what specific recovery expectations are already reflected.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated, with a reported 70% miss probability, and recent quarters have included misses. Over the multi-year view, management’s execution focus has yet to stop revenue and Adjusted EBITDA from declining between 2025-Q1 and 2026-Q2; debt repayment continues, while progress on debt and dividend priorities is mixed or behind.
The thesis hinges on sharper execution and customer retention stabilizing business performance, alongside continued debt management. A guidance cut would add a meaningful negative signal, while Fed rate cuts or stronger results and guidance from sector peers could improve the sector backdrop; the recent CEO transition and announced M&A activity add uncertainty, with limited detail in the snapshot.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CABO’s cheap-versus-peers valuation is weighed against falling revenue and EBITDA, high near-term earnings risk, and a sector headwind. The long-term thesis depends on execution improving and debt management continuing. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Net income improves to at least $35.8M quarterly | Cable One improved net income to $35.8M in 2026-Q1 from a loss last year. | Broken | net income falls below $35.8M | Net income: $-1.165B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $35.8M net income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026-1,164,576,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating cash flow remains at least $118.2M quarterly | Free cash flow supports debt management. | Under Pressure | operating cash flow falls below $118.2M | Cash from operations: $120.857M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $118.2M net cash from operations. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026120,857,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Net cash provided by operating activities was $120.9 million in the second quarter of 2026 compared to $144.9 million in the second quarter of 2025.” “Adjusted EBITDA was $173.5 million in the second quarter of 2026 compared to $203.2 million in the second quarter of 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue stabilizes near $353M quarterly | A primary condition in Cable One's published investment case. The stated target is >= $353M quarterly revenue. | Broken | quarterly revenue falls below $353M | Revenue: $348.926M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $353M quarterly revenue. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026348,926,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$18.72 → $14.79 · observed estimates
$1.50B → $1.50B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $18.72 | $1,501,355,140 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $18.72 | $1,501,355,140 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $18.72 | $1,501,355,140 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $18.72 | $1,501,355,140 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $18.72 | $1,501,355,140 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $18.72 | $1,501,355,140 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $18.72 | $1,501,355,140 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $25.19 | $1,522,588,154 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $18.72 | $1,501,355,140 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $18.72 | $1,501,355,140 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $18.72 | $1,501,355,140 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $18.72 | $1,501,355,140 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $18.72 | $1,499,655,140 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $18.72 | $1,499,655,140 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $20.57 | $1,519,411,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $20.57 | $1,519,411,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $27.34 | $1,491,667,090 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $20.57 | $1,519,411,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $20.57 | $1,519,411,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $20.57 | $1,519,411,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $20.57 | $1,519,411,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $20.57 | $1,519,411,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $20.57 | $1,519,411,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $20.57 | $1,519,411,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $20.57 | $1,519,411,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $20.57 | $1,519,411,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $20.57 | $1,519,411,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $15.71 | $1,507,622,571 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $15.71 | $1,507,622,571 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $15.71 | $1,507,622,571 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $15.71 | $1,507,622,571 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $15.71 | $1,507,622,571 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $15.71 | $1,507,622,571 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $15.71 | $1,507,617,814 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.79 | $1,496,246,386 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.