Cable One (CABO)
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.47-2.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CABO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -73.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 77.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CABO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
The information contained in this Item 2.02, as well as in Exhibit 99.1, is furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and such information shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific…
Why it matters: A lower margin means less profit and worse efficiency.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 49.7% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays at or above 49.7% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The COO leaving could affect how well the company runs. Watching this change is key for future results.
Worry ifA new COO is hired with a clear plan for improvements.
Less concerning ifNo new COO is hired, or the change causes problems.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows a commitment to share profits with shareholders. This is important even with mixed results.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $2.95 for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut below $2.95.
Why it matters: Higher repayments would show commitment to managing debt. This could improve investor confidence in financial health.
Supportive ifDebt repayments in Q3 exceed $62.8 million.
Worry ifDebt repayments in Q3 are less than or equal to $62.8 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$473 on $10,000 · ±4.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,064 loss on $10,000 · 10.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,740 loss on $10,000 · 87.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows improved operations. It also shows better financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities goes up from $120.9 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operating activities goes down from $120.9 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Updates will show how well management handles debt and money.
Supportive ifThere will be big debt payments or refinancing after earnings are announced.
Worry ifNo updates or bad news about debt management after earnings.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow may show bigger problems and affect paying off debt.
Worry ifCash from operations is less than $118.2 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifCash from operations stays above $118.2 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending may show plans for growth or new projects. This impacts cash flow.
Watch forQ2 capital spending is over $70 million.
Also watch forQ2 capital spending is under $70 million.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in residential data revenue shows customer losses. It also shows weak demand.
Worry ifQ3 residential data revenue declines more than 7.3% year over year.
Less concerning ifResidential data revenue declines less than 7.3% year over year or grows.
Why it matters: Results will show how well the company manages its debt and capital.
Watch forThe MBI Term Loan Exchange Offer worked well. Many lenders took part.
Also watch forLow participation in the MBI Term Loan Exchange Offer shows lender worries.
Why it matters: A larger revenue drop would show worsening performance and ongoing subscriber loss. This is critical for assessing future growth potential.
Worry ifQ3 total revenues decline year over year worse than -8.4%.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenues decline year over year better than -8.4%.
Why it matters: Higher losses mean worse financial health and problems with operations.
Worry ifNet losses in Q3 exceed $1.16 billion.
Less concerning ifNet losses in Q3 are less than $1.16 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping net income above this level shows better profits, even with revenue problems.
Supportive ifNet income reported above $35 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income falls below $35 million for Q2 2026.