Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Credit Acceptance Corp (CACC)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$522.58+4.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
57.24 → 56.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CACC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS grows to at least $10.71 in 2026 | A primary condition in Credit Acceptance Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $10.71 USD per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $10.71 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $-5.43 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $10.71 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026-5.43 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CACC is a durable, specialist finance business with a premium valuation, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is still intact, but recent signals have turned mixed and management execution remains volatile.
CACC trades at a 2.6-times premium versus peers, reflecting expectations of durable business quality. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting current expectations may be demanding; confidence in this valuation assessment is low, while the priced-in fragility measure is low.
Near term, the October 29 earnings miss and recent declines in momentum and quality signals point to weaker operating evidence. In Q3, consumer-loan unit and dollar volume grew 38% and 51% year over year, and active dealers reached a record 12,093, but forecasted net cash flows fell by $291.2 million, or 2.5%, keeping underwriting discipline in focus. The near-term miss risk is assessed as low, though the company has missed recently, including its latest quarter.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether volume and dealer-network growth can continue without further deterioration in forecasted cash flows. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while the effect of any Fed rate cuts and broader financial-sector results are additional swing factors. The evidence for the September agreement and litigation is thin, so their business implications are unclear.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CACC retains a durable-business case, but its expensive-versus-peers valuation leaves limited room for execution to weaken. The key test is whether growth can coexist with disciplined underwriting and steadier financial results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| New CFO may help keep financial strategy steady. |
| Under Pressure |
| Significant financial strategy disruption after CFO change |
Qualitative: CFO departed Sep 2026; settlement with 40 states Sep 2026 CFO Jay Martin departed Sep 2026. Company settled with 40 states in Sep 2026. Q3 earnings missed estimates. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Cash from operating activities at least $346.8 million in Q1 2026 | The company keeps strong profit margins and good cash flow. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $346.8 million in Q1 2026 | Cash from operations: $335.5M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $346.8 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 2026335,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$54.82 → $56.82 · observed estimates
$2.50B → $2.29B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $54.82 | $2,499,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $54.82 | $2,499,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $54.82 | $2,499,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $54.82 | $2,499,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $54.82 | $2,499,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $54.82 | $2,499,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $54.82 | $2,499,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $56.76 | $2,499,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $54.82 | $2,499,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $54.82 | $2,499,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $54.82 | $2,499,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $54.82 | $2,499,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $54.82 | $2,499,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $54.82 | $2,499,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $57.23 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $55.45 | $2,278,066,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $55.45 | $2,278,066,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $55.45 | $2,278,066,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $57.23 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $57.23 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $57.23 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $57.23 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $57.23 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $57.23 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $57.23 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $57.23 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $57.23 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $57.24 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $57.24 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $57.24 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $57.24 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $57.24 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $57.24 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $57.24 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $57.24 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $57.24 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $57.24 | $2,278,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $57.24 | $2,289,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $57.24 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $57.24 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $57.24 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $57.24 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $57.24 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $57.24 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $57.24 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $57.24 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $57.24 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $57.24 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $57.24 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $57.24 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $57.24 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $57.24 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $57.24 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $57.24 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $59.33 | $2,290,108,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $59.57 | $2,511,808,002 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $59.13 | $2,511,800,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $59.13 | $2,511,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $59.13 | $2,511,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $59.13 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $57.17 | $2,510,800,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $56.21 | $2,289,655,367 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $56.21 | $2,289,655,367 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $56.21 | $2,289,655,367 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $56.82 | $2,289,666,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $56.82 | $2,289,666,667 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.