CACI International (CACI)
NYSEIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$623.61-1.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CACI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers
CACI — President transition
Dated 2026-06-05
President, U.S. Operations — DeEtte Gray: Ms. DeEtte Gray is retiring from her role as President, U.S. Operations with an agreed transition period.
Why it matters: Strong contract awards show demand for CACI's services. This supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifCACI announces contract awards over $2 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2027.
Worry ifContract awards fall below $1.5 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect strategy and execution. This matters for future results.
Watch forNew president announced with a strong track record in operations.
Also watch forChanges can lead to problems for management. They may also cause strategy issues.
Why it matters: If they exceed this growth rate, it shows strong performance and profit.
Supportive ifNet income growth exceeds 17% YoY in the upcoming earnings report.
Worry ifNet income growth is at or below 16% YoY. This suggests slower profit growth.
Why it matters: Revenue guidance shows CACI can keep growing after a strong fiscal 2026.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue for fiscal year 2027 will be over $10 billion.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue for fiscal year 2027 to below $9.5 billion.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$176 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $297 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,344 loss on $10,000 · 33.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Dr. Dave Young's leadership could enhance operations. His experience may lead to better execution and growth.
Supportive ifYoung's leadership led to lower costs and more project wins.
Worry ifNo clear improvement in metrics or project wins since his appointment.
Why it matters: New revenue guidance will show how the ARKA acquisition impacts future sales. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifCACI raises fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance above $9,600 million.
Worry ifCACI keeps fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance below $9,500 million.
Why it matters: A strong EBITDA margin shows CACI can manage costs while growing revenue.
Supportive ifEBITDA margin is reported above 12% for Q1 2027.
Worry ifEBITDA margin drops below 11.5% for Q1 2027.
Why it matters: The ARKA acquisition is a key part of CACI's strategy to boost revenue. If it adds $150 million as expected, it shows the strategy is working.
Supportive ifFor fiscal year 2026, revenue guidance expects $150 million from ARKA.
Worry ifRevenue growth fails to meet the new guidance of $9.5 billion to $9.6 billion.
Why it matters: Changes in DSO can indicate how well CACI manages its receivables and cash flow.
Watch forDSO is below 55 days. This shows better cash flow management.
Also watch forDSO is above 55 days. This suggests cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Confirming this margin shows CACI is making more money and managing costs well.
Supportive ifEBITDA margin guidance is confirmed at 11.8% to 11.9%.
Worry ifEBITDA margin guidance is revised down to below 11.8%.
Why it matters: Good integration will boost CACI's skills. It will help grow in national security.
Supportive ifManagement says they are combining ARKA well. They see benefits in operations.
Worry ifManagement says there are issues or delays with the ARKA Group integration.
Why it matters: Meeting free cash flow guidance shows strong cash generation ability.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at least $725 million for fiscal year 2027.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $600 million for fiscal year 2027.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows CACI can keep going after buying ARKA.
Supportive ifFiscal Q1 revenue growth exceeds 8.5% year over year.
Worry ifFiscal Q1 revenue growth falls below 8.5% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping or improving EBITDA margin shows good cost control and profit.
Supportive ifEBITDA margin stays above 12.3% in the next quarter.
Worry ifEBITDA margin drops below 12.3% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: High contract awards show strong demand and future money for CACI.
Supportive ifNew contract awards exceed $2 billion in fiscal Q1.
Worry ifNew contract awards fall below $2 billion in fiscal Q1.
Why it matters: Using ARKA well will help CACI do more and earn more.
Watch forManagement says they hit integration goals and got revenue from ARKA.
Also watch forManagement talks about issues or delays in using ARKA Group.