Conagra Brands (CAG)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.48-0.90%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CAG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
CAG — COO transition
Dated 2026-07-28
Chief Operating Officer — Thomas McGough: Thomas McGough, the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, is retiring and the COO position will be eliminated.
Why it matters: John Brase's appointment as CEO may change company direction. Investor sentiment could shift based on his strategy.
Watch forThe market reacted positively. The stock price went up after the announcement.
Also watch forThe market reacted negatively. The stock price went down after the announcement.
Why it matters: New products can drive growth and improve market share.
Supportive ifThey announced new products that did well at the CAGNY conference.
Worry ifThere were no new product announcements or bad feedback at CAGNY.
Why it matters: The company targets adjusted EPS between $1.40 and $1.50 for fiscal 2027. This will indicate their ability to recover earnings.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS in Q1 2027 is above $1.45.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS in Q1 2027 is below $1.40.
Why it matters: A change in guidance would signal management's confidence in future growth. It reflects how well the company adapts to market conditions.
Watch forManagement raises the sales guidance above the current range of (3)% to (1)%.
Also watch forManagement lowers the sales guidance below the current range of (3)% to (1)%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $315 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,716 loss on $10,000 · 37.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive organic sales growth would show recovery in demand and brand strength. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifQ3 organic net sales growth reported above 0%.
Worry ifQ3 organic net sales continue to decline or remain flat.
Why it matters: This margin range is crucial for profitability. Meeting it reflects cost control.
Supportive ifThe operating margin is between 10.0% and 10.5% for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifThe operating margin is below 10.0%.
Why it matters: John Brase's strategy will shape the company's future. A clear plan can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifA press release will explain John Brase's plans for Conagra.
Worry ifNo clear strategy or plan announced within three months of his appointment.
Why it matters: John Brase's leadership may change company strategy and performance. Investor feelings may change.
Watch forPositive stock price movement following the announcement of John Brase as CEO on June 1, 2026.
Also watch forStock price fell after the announcement.
Why it matters: John Brase's plans may reshape the company's direction. Clarity can boost investor confidence.
Watch forPublic statements will explain plans to improve margins and growth.
Also watch forNo clear plans or new initiatives have been announced.
Why it matters: Higher inflation affects margins and profits. Watching this helps understand financial health.
Worry ifCost of goods sold inflation reported below 7% for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifCost of goods sold inflation reported above 7% for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: The company aims for an adjusted operating margin of 10.0% to 10.5% for fiscal 2027. This will show if they can maintain profitability.
Supportive ifThe adjusted operating margin in Q1 2027 is over 10.5%.
Worry ifThe adjusted operating margin in Q1 2027 is under 10.0%.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding EPS guidance shows good cost control and steady operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported at or above $1.70.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS was below $1.70.
Why it matters: Net debt levels affect financial flexibility. A lower amount shows good cash management. A higher amount raises concerns.
Supportive ifNet debt decreases further from $7.1 billion reported for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifNet debt increases above $7.3 billion in upcoming reports.
Why it matters: John Brase's leadership could shift strategy and improve performance. This is crucial after the recent executive change.
Watch forGood performance numbers came in after Brase was appointed.
Also watch forPoor performance numbers came in after Brase was appointed.
Why it matters: This EPS range is a key target for management. Meeting it shows financial stability.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported between $1.70 and $1.85 for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS was below $1.70 for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Organic sales growth is crucial for long-term health. A rebound signals recovery.
Supportive ifOrganic net sales growth reported above -1% for fiscal 2027.
Worry ifOrganic net sales decline reported worse than -1% for fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Buybacks can support stock price and signal confidence in the business.
Supportive ifThere was an announcement of a big share buyback program.
Worry ifThere were no buyback announcements or bad market reactions to buybacks.