Conagra Brands (CAG)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.51+1.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CAG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
CAG — COO transition
Dated 2026-07-28
Chief Operating Officer — Thomas McGough: Thomas McGough, the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, is retiring and the COO position will be eliminated.
Why it matters: The company used $128 million of cash in the first quarter. It still targets conversion above 90% for the full year.
Worry ifFY2027 free cash flow conversion is 90% or lower, or management cuts its target below 90%.
Less concerning ifFY2027 free cash flow conversion is above 90%, as guided.
Why it matters: The company reaffirmed a $1.40 to $1.50 adjusted EPS range. Results below $1.40 would miss its stated goal.
Worry ifFY2027 adjusted EPS comes in below $1.40, or management cuts its $1.40 to $1.50 range.
Less concerning ifFY2027 adjusted EPS is at least $1.40 and within the guided range.
Why it matters: Net debt was $7.4 billion and leverage was 3.99x after the first quarter. A higher year-end ratio would miss the stated goal.
Worry ifFY2027 ends with net leverage above 4.0x, or management raises its year-end goal above 4.0x.
Less concerning ifFY2027 ends at or below about 4.0x net leverage.
Why it matters: Sales fell 1.1% in the latest quarter. A full-year drop worse than 3% would miss the range management reaffirmed.
Worry ifFY2027 organic net sales fall more than 3% year over year, or management lowers the range below a 3% decline.
Less concerning ifFY2027 organic net sales decline by 1% to 3%, within the stated range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$145 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $315 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,716 loss on $10,000 · 37.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The next results will test the full-year targets. Falling outside either range would show that the first-quarter outlook is slipping.
Watch forOn December 18, CAG reports organic sales and adjusted margin. Both keep its FY2027 ranges unchanged.
Also watch forOn December 18, CAG cuts either FY2027 range, or reports results that no longer support them.