Cardinal Health (CAH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical DistributionSnapshot 2026-07-07
$239.69+0.91%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $239.69. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $240 CAH trades at 29× p/e, in line with its 27× p/e peer median, and our $256 fair value agrees. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $240–$275. Not investment advice.
$240.00 – $275.00 (median $248.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-01
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 104% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 8.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $4.84/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2024-Q2, 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $346.05 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $361.33 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $24.24 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $285.95 | 26.6 | 10.75 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $205.58 | 15.3 | 14.85 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $369.24 | 19.9 | 18.53 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $220.51 | 26.6 | 8.29 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $345.89 | 41.7 | 8.29 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $171.83 | 20.7 | 8.29 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $231.80 | 26.6 | 8.71 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $888.40 | 26.6 | 33.40 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $356.81 | 19.9 | 17.91 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $362.62 | 26.6 | 13.63 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $568.80 | 41.7 | 13.63 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $282.56 | 20.7 | 13.63 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $1891.57 | 26.6 | 71.11 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $348.76 | 19.9 | 17.50 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $468.26 | 26.6 | 17.60 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $734.50 | 41.7 | 17.60 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $364.88 | 20.7 | 17.60 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.