Cardinal Health (CAH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$247.18-0.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CAH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
CAH — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-11
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On August 7, 2026, Cardinal Health, Inc., (the “Company”), Wells Fargo Bank, National Association (“WF”), as Administrative Agent, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, BofA Securities, Inc., Goldman Sachs Bank USA, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Joint Lead Arrangers and Joint Bookrunners, and Goldman Sachs Bank USA and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Barclays Bank plc, Deutsche Bank AG New York Branch, HSBC Bank USA, National Association, PNC Bank, National Associ…
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can keep growing. They will also show if costs are managed well.
Watch forEarnings results show non-GAAP EPS above $3.17.
Also watch forEarnings results show non-GAAP EPS below $3.17.
Why it matters: Management plans to repurchase $1 billion in shares for FY27. Updates show they want to return value to shareholders.
Supportive ifConfirmation of share repurchases of $1 billion or more during FY27.
Worry ifShare buybacks are below $1 billion. This shows less commitment to shareholders.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows strong demand and success across segments.
Supportive ifQ2 fiscal year 2026 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Free cash flow over $3.3 billion shows good cash management and strong operations. This helps the company's growth plans.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow for Q3 FY26 exceeds $3.3 billion.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow for Q3 FY26 is below $3.3 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $251 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,042 loss on $10,000 · 20.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this EPS range shows good performance and growth confidence.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP diluted EPS for Q1 fiscal 2026 meets or exceeds $10.70.
Worry ifNon-GAAP diluted EPS falls below $10.70.
Why it matters: Insights from the Investor Day can clarify growth strategies and long-term outlook.
Watch forThey gave positive updates on growth plans and long-term outlook at Investor Day.
Also watch forNegative feedback or lack of clarity on growth strategies at the Investor Day.
Why it matters: A confirmed drop in Medical segment profit may show ongoing problems in that area.
Worry ifMedical segment profit declines by more than 50% year over year.
Less concerning ifMedical segment profit declines less than 50% year over year.
Why it matters: EPS guidance shows strong earnings growth. It also shows management's confidence.
Supportive ifFiscal year 2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance confirmed at $12.40 to $12.60.
Worry ifGuidance is lowered below $12.40.
Why it matters: Higher free cash flow helps growth plans and rewards for shareholders.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow guidance confirmed at $3.5 to $4.0 billion.
Worry ifGuidance is lowered below $3.5 billion.