Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Cardinal Health (CAH)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$267.82+2.25%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
14.07 → 14.08 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CAH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS guidance at about $10.75 in fiscal Q2 2026 | EPS guidance rose from $9.4 to $10.75. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $9.4 next fiscal year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CAH is a large healthcare business with a currently favorable, results-supported thesis rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium because earnings quality and management evidence are neutral and the valuation is expensive.
CAH trades at a premium to peers, and the valuation assessment is expensive. The priced-in signal says expectations are broadly aligned with the evidence, with low fragility, though the expectations-gap estimate is negative and model confidence is low.
Near-term, management’s repeated priorities appear on track: fiscal 2027 non-GAAP diluted EPS and adjusted free cash flow guidance have risen, while Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions profit grew year over year. Recent financial performance is strong, but a past deep miss and recent peer misses leave some risk; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on CAH sustaining its guidance and profit growth. Weakening jobs data could raise recession concerns for cyclical healthcare names, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, CAH’s strong recent execution and supportive sector backdrop keep the long-term thesis intact, but its premium valuation and risk of weaker guidance remain important limits. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow guidance increased to $3.5 billion. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow guidance falls below $3.25 billion next fiscal year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at about 11-19% YoY | A supporting condition in Cardinal Health's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: 6.15% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 11, 20266.148706 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.56 → $14.08 · observed estimates
$298.21B → $281.74B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.56 | $298,208,115,077 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.56 | $298,208,115,077 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.59 | $297,720,042,420 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 5 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.59 | $297,845,444,271 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $14.09 | $282,577,795,808 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $14.09 | $282,577,782,475 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $14.09 | $282,577,782,475 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $14.09 | $282,577,782,475 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $14.09 | $282,577,782,475 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $14.09 | $282,577,782,475 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $14.09 | $282,577,782,475 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $14.09 | $282,577,782,475 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $14.09 | $282,577,782,475 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $14.09 | $282,577,782,475 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $14.09 | $282,577,782,475 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $14.07 | $283,139,846,822 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $14.07 | $283,139,846,822 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $14.07 | $283,139,846,822 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.07 | $283,139,846,822 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $14.07 | $283,139,846,822 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $14.07 | $283,139,846,822 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $14.07 | $283,139,846,822 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $14.07 | $281,849,846,822 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $14.07 | $281,849,846,822 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $14.07 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $14.07 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.07 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.07 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.07 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.07 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.07 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.07 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.07 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.07 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.08 | $281,742,453,965 | 9 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.