Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-30 · fmp
The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. (CAKE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$110.71-4.06%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.00 → 5.21 EPS · FY ending Dec 30, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CAKE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve consolidated sales of $3.91 billion in 2026 | The company targets about $3.91 billion in sales for the year. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $3.6 billion in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an established restaurant business with a growth and execution thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is intact, and recent signals have shifted from mixed to mildly favorable.
CAKE is valued at a premium to peers, reflecting expectations for durable business strength. The evidence labels this premium unjustified, while the expectations gap is meaningful; valuation is the main source of fragility, not a broader stack of weak fundamentals and turbulence.
Near term, recent results are strong: third-quarter comparable sales increased, operating income improved, and management reported progress on labor productivity and food efficiency. Restaurant openings are tangible, but the fiscal-year expansion goal remains in progress; a guidance cut on the next call is a key risk despite a low estimated miss risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued restaurant execution, sales momentum, and progress toward the expansion goal. Guidance cuts could weaken the setup, while results and guidance from sector peers such as MCD, SBUX, and YUM may signal whether the broader industry tailwind persists.
For a 1-to-3-year view, CAKE has improving fundamentals and an intact thesis, but its expensive valuation leaves less room for execution to disappoint. The main questions are whether recent operating and sales gains persist and whether management meets its guidance and expansion commitments. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It maintains a stable dividend of $0.30 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend cut below $0.30 per share in 2026 |
Dividend per share: $0.30 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $0.30 per share quarterly dividend. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 2, 20260.3 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company continues to expect to open as many as 26 new restaurants in fiscal 2026, including as many as five The Cheesecake Factory restaurants, eight North Italia locations, seven Flower Child locations and as many as six FRC restaurants.” “The Company now expects to open as many as 26 new restaurants in fiscal 2026, including as many as six The Cheesecake Factory restaurants, six to seven North Italia locations, six to seven Flower Child locations and as many as eight FRC restaurants.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Open up to 26 new restaurants in 2026 | Cheesecake Factory aims to open up to 26 new restaurants in 2026. | Intact | fewer than 20 new restaurants opened by end of 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company continues to expect to open as many as 26 new restaurants in fiscal 2026, including as many as five The Cheesecake Factory restaurants, eight North Italia locations, seven Flower Child locations and as many as six FRC restaurants.” “The Company now expects to open as many as 26 new restaurants in fiscal 2026, including as many as six The Cheesecake Factory restaurants, six to seven North Italia locations, six to seven Flower Child locations and as many as eight FRC restaurants.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.49 → $5.21 · observed estimates
$4.18B → $4.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.49 | $4,183,606,493 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.49 | $4,183,606,493 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.49 | $4,183,606,493 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.49 | $4,183,606,493 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.50 | $4,184,920,604 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.50 | $4,184,920,604 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.90 | $4,297,965,657 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.93 | $4,304,911,935 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.93 | $4,304,911,935 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.93 | $4,304,911,935 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.93 | $4,304,911,935 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.93 | $4,304,911,935 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.93 | $4,304,911,935 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.93 | $4,304,911,935 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.93 | $4,304,789,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.93 | $4,304,789,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.93 | $4,304,789,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.93 | $4,304,789,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.93 | $4,304,789,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.93 | $4,304,789,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.93 | $4,304,789,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.93 | $4,304,789,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.93 | $4,304,789,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.93 | $4,304,789,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.93 | $4,304,789,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.93 | $4,304,789,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.93 | $4,304,789,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.93 | $4,305,039,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.93 | $4,305,039,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.93 | $4,305,039,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.93 | $4,305,039,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.93 | $4,305,039,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.93 | $4,305,039,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.93 | $4,305,039,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.93 | $4,305,039,713 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.96 | $4,313,095,268 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.96 | $4,313,095,268 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.96 | $4,313,095,268 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.96 | $4,313,095,268 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.96 | $4,313,095,268 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.96 | $4,313,095,268 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.96 | $4,313,095,268 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.96 | $4,313,095,268 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.96 | $4,313,095,268 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.96 | $4,313,095,268 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.97 | $4,313,618,322 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.97 | $4,313,618,322 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.97 | $4,313,618,322 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.97 | $4,313,618,322 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.97 | $4,313,973,878 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.97 | $4,313,973,878 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.97 | $4,313,973,878 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.97 | $4,313,973,878 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.97 | $4,313,973,878 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.00 | $4,319,656,883 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.00 | $4,319,657,211 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.00 | $4,319,657,211 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.00 | $4,319,657,211 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.00 | $4,319,657,211 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.00 | $4,319,657,211 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.00 | $4,319,657,211 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.00 | $4,319,657,211 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.00 | $4,319,657,211 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.00 | $4,319,657,211 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.99 | $4,318,654,694 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.99 | $4,318,654,694 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.99 | $4,318,654,694 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.99 | $4,318,654,346 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.00 | $4,318,654,346 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.00 | $4,318,654,346 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.00 | $4,318,654,346 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.00 | $4,318,654,346 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.00 | $4,318,654,346 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.00 | $4,318,654,346 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.00 | $4,318,654,346 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.03 | $4,322,560,228 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.03 | $4,322,560,228 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.03 | $4,322,560,228 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.03 | $4,323,395,522 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.03 | $4,323,395,522 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.03 | $4,323,395,522 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.03 | $4,323,395,522 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.03 | $4,323,395,522 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.05 | $4,325,483,758 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.07 | $4,331,510,629 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.07 | $4,331,510,629 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.10 | $4,336,455,323 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.10 | $4,336,455,323 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.10 | $4,336,455,323 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.10 | $4,338,178,852 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.10 | $4,339,377,440 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.17 | $4,350,759,384 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.18 | $4,351,794,678 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.22 | $4,360,590,454 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.22 | $4,360,590,454 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.22 | $4,360,590,454 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.20 | $4,371,662,969 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.20 | $4,422,305,207 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.20 | $4,429,171,591 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.20 | $4,429,171,591 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.20 | $4,429,171,591 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.20 | $4,429,171,591 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.21 | $4,435,449,473 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.21 | $4,435,449,473 | 11 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 11 recorded
7 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.