The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. (CAKE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$107.58+0.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CAKE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 48.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
CAKE — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-28
OTHER EVENTS Additionally, on July 23, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share which will be paid on August 25, 2026 to the stockholders of record of each share of the Company’s common stock at the close of business on August 11, 2026. Future decisions to pay or to increase or decrease dividends are at the discretion of the Board and will depend upon operating performance and other factors.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into financial health and growth progress.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows net income growth compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows a decline in net income compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends show financial health and management confidence. An increase may draw more investors.
Supportive ifThe company announces a dividend increase above $0.30 per share in the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend below $0.30 per share in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows strong growth. It also shows good management.
Supportive ifTotal revenues for 2026 reach or exceed $4.0 billion.
Worry ifTotal revenues fall below $3.75 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to assessing business health. Meeting targets shows strong performance.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue meets or exceeds $2.01 billion.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue falls below $1.95 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $304 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,843 loss on $10,000 · 28.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend can show how much management trusts cash flow and profits.
Watch forThe Board increases the quarterly dividend above $0.30 per share.
Also watch forThe Board cuts the quarterly dividend below $0.30 per share.
Why it matters: More money coming in shows strong demand. It also means growth plans are working.
Supportive ifTotal revenues in Q2 exceed $978.8 million.
Worry ifTotal revenues in Q2 fall below $950 million.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can keep making money despite problems.
Watch forQ2 earnings per share meet or exceed $1.02.
Also watch forQ2 earnings per share fall below $1.02.
Why it matters: Paying dividends shows good financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Watch forThe dividend is paid as scheduled on August 25, 2026.
Also watch forThe company delays or cancels the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows how healthy the business is and its ability to meet goals.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue grew more than 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth is below 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: This shows if the company can keep up its sales momentum. Strong growth supports ongoing success.
Supportive ifQ3 restaurant sales grew over 5.8% compared to last year.
Worry ifRestaurant sales grew less than 1.6% compared to last year.
Why it matters: New openings are key to growth. Meeting the target shows strong execution.
Supportive ifThe company opens at least 15 of the planned 26 new restaurants by year-end.
Worry ifFewer than 15 new restaurants opened by year-end.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control and profit. It shows the company is strong.
Supportive ifQ3 operating income rose over 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income fell compared to last year.