The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. (CAKE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$110.71-4.06%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CAKE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 48.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CAKE — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-27
OTHER EVENTS On October 21, 2026, the Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share which will be paid on November 24, 2026 to the stockholders of record of each share of the Company’s common stock at the close of business on November 10, 2026. Future decisions to pay or to increase or decrease dividends are at the discretion of the Board and will depend upon operating performance and other factors.
Why it matters: The company opened six restaurants in Q3 and aims for as many as 26 this year. The final count tests its growth plan.
Supportive ifThe fiscal 2026 year-end report lists 26 new restaurant openings. Or it says the company met its goal of up to 26.
Worry ifThe fiscal 2026 year-end report lists fewer than 26 openings and says the company fell short of its goal.
Why it matters: The sector data points to shrinking revenue, while CAKE's revenue rose in Q3. A further gain would show the company is holding up.
Watch forCAKE reports Q4 revenue above the prior-year quarter's $907.2 million.
Also watch forCAKE reports Q4 revenue at or below the prior-year quarter's $907.2 million.
Why it matters: The board declared a $0.30 per-share dividend, matching recent quarters. The payment is a near-term check on that payout.
Supportive ifThe company pays $0.30 per share on November 24 to holders of record on November 10.
Worry ifThe company announces a change or delay to the November 24 payment before it is paid.
Why it matters: Comparable sales rose 15.2% in Q3, up from 5.8% in Q2 and 1.6% in Q1. The next result tests whether that jump lasts.
Watch forQ4 sales at Cheesecake Factory restaurants rise at least 5% from a year earlier.
Also watch forQ4 sales at Cheesecake Factory restaurants are flat or fall from a year earlier.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $314 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,826 loss on $10,000 · 18.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.