Caleres, Inc. (CAL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.43+2.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS guidance for fiscal year 2026: FY26 EPS guidance low $1.44 vs $1.44 target.
Caleres is improving earnings with EPS guidance raised to $1.44-$1.69 for 2026. Operating income nearly doubled to $23.87M in Q1 2026. Cash from operations turned positive to $69.43M in Q2 2026. The stock trades cheap at a PE of 11.3 versus peers at 13.6.
Caleres faces sector headwinds and has a history of earnings misses. Management confidence dropped 8.6 points recently. The company remains loss-making and the turnaround is not yet proven. Revenue growth is modest at 4.5% consensus.
The price is about 20% below our fair value near $15, reflecting modest 4.5% revenue growth. Our view is aligned with the market on growth but sees upside from improving earnings and cash flow.
Breaks if: Cash from operations falls below -$27.78M in any quarter of 2026
Management is working to enhance cash flow from operations.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operations improved significantly from -$27.78M in 2026-Q1 to $69.43M in 2026-Q2, indicating effective management actions to enhance operational cash flow. The trajectory shows substantial improvement.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving earnings and operational cash flow. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has shown signs of recovery but remains under watch due to potential risks.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting weak execution quality but not fully accounting for the current turbulence in the sector. CAL is seen as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap indicating that investors may not fully believe in the management's improvement efforts.
Management has been focused on enhancing earnings per share (EPS) guidance, operating income growth, and cash from operations, showing a positive trajectory. However, there is a significant near-term risk of missing earnings estimates, which could impact investor confidence.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Cash from operations improved to $69.43 million...”
“Cash from operations was -$27.78 million...”
Breaks if: EPS guidance low bound falls below $1.31 in FY26
Management aims to improve EPS guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance increased from $1.31-$1.61 in 2026-Q1 to $1.44-$1.69 in 2026-Q2, indicating management's focus on improving earnings expectations. The trajectory shows a positive adjustment in guidance.
“We expect GAAP earnings per diluted share of $1.44 to $1.69...”
“We expect GAAP earnings per diluted share of $1.31 to $1.61...”
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $11.58M in any quarter of 2026
Management is focusing on growing operating income as a key financial metric.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income increased from $11.58M in 2025-Q1 to $23.87M in 2026-Q1, showing significant growth. This aligns with management's focus on improving operating income as a key financial metric.
“Operating income increased to $23.87 million...”
“Operating income was $11.58 million...”
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 4.5% YoY next year
Management is focusing on growing operating income as a key financial metric.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income increased from $11.58M in 2025-Q1 to $23.87M in 2026-Q1, showing significant growth. This aligns with management's focus on improving operating income as a key financial metric.
“Operating income increased to $23.87 million...”
“Operating income was $11.58 million...”
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain improved guidance and operational performance. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and inflation trends will be critical in determining the overall market sentiment towards CAL.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CAL's prospects depend on effective execution of management priorities and external economic factors. Not investment advice.