Caleres, Inc. (CAL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.43+2.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CAL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 26.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
CAL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-19
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 19, 2026, Caleres, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release (the "Press Release") announcing, among other things, its results of operations for the quarter ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto, and the statements contained therein are incorporated by reference herein. In accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the information contained in
Why it matters: Steady growth in operating income is key for long-term financial health.
Supportive ifOperating income reported to grow year over year from $23.87M.
Worry ifOperating income is reported to decline or stay flat year over year.
Why it matters: This growth is important. It supports management's positive view of the Brand Portfolio.
Supportive ifQ2 consolidated net sales reported to increase by 5% or more year over year.
Worry ifQ2 consolidated net sales reported to increase less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows the company is managing costs well. This can improve overall performance.
Supportive ifOperating income grew more than 5% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income growth is flat or negative year over year.
Why it matters: Improving EPS guidance shows management's confidence in earnings growth. This can attract more investors.
Supportive ifQ3 EPS guidance raised above $1.69.
Worry ifEPS guidance stays below $1.44.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$275 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $587 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,318 loss on $10,000 · 43.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this EPS range shows strong financial performance. It shows better earnings outlook.
Supportive ifQ2 GAAP earnings per diluted share reported at $0.38 or higher.
Worry ifQ2 GAAP earnings per diluted share reported below $0.32.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance shows that management is confident in future earnings growth.
Supportive ifManagement raises adjusted EPS guidance to above $1.40 for the full year.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers EPS guidance below $1.40.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth turns positive, it could signal a recovery. This may benefit Caleres' sales.
Watch forSector revenue growth turns positive, exceeding 2% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains negative or below 2%.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow from operations shows strong financial health. It supports ongoing growth initiatives.
Supportive ifCash from operations was positive for the quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations was negative for the quarter.
Why it matters: Famous Footwear is a major part of Caleres. Sales trends will show if the brand can recover from recent declines.
Worry ifFamous Footwear sales decline less than 5% year over year in Q2.
Less concerning ifFamous Footwear sales decline more than 5% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Better gross margins show good cost management and pricing. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifGross margin improves by at least 345 basis points in Q2.
Worry ifGross margin improves by less than 345 basis points in Q2.
Why it matters: More cash from operations shows better financial health. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $69 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $69 million in Q2.