Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-30 · fmp
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$65.67-3.53%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.98 → 0.78 EPS · FY ending May 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CALM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand and strengthen Board of Directors | A supporting condition in Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Board size increased to 10 with independent directors. | Improving | No further board improvements or governance issues arise | 2 new independent directors added vs target of 10 total by mid-2026 June 2026 filing confirms appointment of Haley R. Fisackerly and Michael J. Highfield as new independent directors. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a food-sector business with a growth and diversification story, rather than a clear turnaround or a pure growth case. Its long-term thesis has some support from expanding specialty and prepared-foods sales, but recent financial performance is weak and the current thesis state is watch.
The valuation is described as cheap, though it carries a modest premium versus peers and the model confidence is low. The expectations gap is small, and the priced-in evidence calls the setup justified with low fragility, not a case where weak execution is combined with an expensive valuation.
Near term, recent earnings misses and erratic results raise the risk of another miss, while the latest recorded earnings event was negative. Over the multi-year view, management is on track with expanding specialty eggs and prepared foods, which made up a larger share of sales by 2026-Q3; planned prepared-foods capacity growth could support further diversification.
A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure to the near-term setup, especially given the risk that recession concerns affect cyclical businesses. The favorable case depends partly on sector peers continuing to report strong results and raise guidance, alongside CALM delivering on prepared-foods expansion and disciplined acquisitions.
The 1-3 year thesis has a credible diversification path, but it is balanced by weak recent performance and meaningful near-term execution risk. The evidence supports a watchful, not settled, view. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Resolve DOJ claims and maintain compliance |
| A primary condition in Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Complete settlement and compliance by mid-2026. |
| Recovered |
| New legal penalties or fines arise after settlement |
Settlement $1.5M vs Target: Complete by 2026-H1 Cal-Maine agreed to a $1.5M settlement on the egg scandal in July 2026, resolving the primary regulatory driver. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS near $25 in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 24.95 USD per share. | Broken | EPS falls below $20 per share in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $-1.26 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: 24.95 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 30, 2026-1.26 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain valuation below peer median PE | A supporting condition in Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE below 10. | Intact | PE rises above 13 without profit growth | P/E (TTM): 57.69x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202657.6864 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.77 → $0.78 · observed estimates
$2.88B → $2.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.77 | $2,877,444,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.77 | $2,877,444,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.77 | $2,877,444,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.77 | $2,877,444,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.77 | $2,877,444,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.77 | $2,877,444,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.77 | $2,877,444,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.73 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.73 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.73 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.73 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.73 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.73 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.73 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.80 | $2,798,908,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.48 | $2,785,158,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.48 | $2,785,158,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.48 | $2,785,158,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.48 | $2,785,158,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.48 | $2,785,158,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.48 | $2,785,158,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.48 | $2,785,158,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.48 | $2,785,158,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.48 | $2,785,158,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.48 | $2,785,158,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.48 | $2,785,158,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.48 | $2,785,158,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.48 | $2,785,158,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.48 | $2,785,158,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.48 | $2,785,158,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.28 | $2,802,503,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.28 | $2,802,503,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.28 | $2,802,503,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.95 | $2,780,878,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.95 | $2,780,878,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.60 | $2,667,878,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.60 | $2,667,878,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.60 | $2,667,878,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.60 | $2,667,878,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.60 | $2,667,878,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.60 | $2,667,878,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.60 | $2,667,878,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.98 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.98 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.98 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.98 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.98 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.98 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.98 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.98 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.98 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.98 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.98 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.98 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.98 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.98 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.98 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.98 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.78 | $2,611,126,250 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.