Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$68.07+2.87%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CALM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CALM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-09-30
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 hereto shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing or other document filed by the Company with the SEC pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, the rules and regulations of the SEC thereunder, the Exchange Act, or the rules an d regulations of the SEC thereunder except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference to this Form 8-K in such filing or document.
Why it matters: The deal still needs court approval. It includes compliance rules, a 30-million-egg donation, and $1.5 million in payments.
Watch forThe court approves the agreement, with no added fines or penalties beyond the stated terms.
Also watch forThe court rejects the agreement, or new fines or penalties are imposed in the case.
Why it matters: More capacity can support growth, but production cuts already reduced sales and profit. Results will show whether the investment pays off.
Watch forBy the first half of fiscal 2028, capacity is up over 60% from fiscal 2026 year-end. Prepared Foods sales volume and segment income rise from a year earlier.
Also watch forThe capacity target slips past the first half of fiscal 2028. Or, higher capacity comes with lower Prepared Foods volume and segment income.
Why it matters: Low prices drove a $71.0 million loss in Conventional Shell Eggs. A lasting recovery would ease pressure on earnings.
Watch forIn a reported quarter, conventional egg prices rise from a year earlier. The segment returns to operating profit.
Also watch forConventional Shell Eggs posts another operating loss. Too much supply keeps prices low.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $279 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,518 loss on $10,000 · 35.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.