Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$74.63-1.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CALM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -12.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and missed its most recent quarter. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
CALM — capital allocation
Dated 2026-09-02
– Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information contained in
Why it matters: A good expansion would help steady and grow revenue in prepared foods. This is important for management.
Supportive ifA new $54 million investment will add 30% more production in Prepared Foods.
Worry ifNo news or delays in the planned expansion of Prepared Foods production.
Why it matters: The DOJ resolution may affect the company's reputation and focus. Good news could boost investor confidence.
Watch forCourt approval of the DOJ agreement with no fines or penalties imposed.
Also watch forCourt challenges or more penalties from the DOJ agreement.
Why it matters: Approval of the DOJ settlement lets Cal-Maine focus on growth without legal issues.
Supportive ifThe court approved the DOJ settlement. Cal-Maine can now move forward without legal issues.
Worry ifDelays or problems in getting court approval for the DOJ settlement.
Why it matters: Successful expansion of the Eggland's Best franchise could increase market share and revenue. This is a key growth area for the company.
Supportive ifSpecialty Shell Egg volume will increase by about 5% each year from Eggland's Best expansion.
Worry ifNo increase in Specialty Shell Egg volume from the Eggland's Best expansion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $288 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,536 loss on $10,000 · 35.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More acquisitions would help growth and variety in prepared foods.
Supportive ifNews of new acquisitions in prepared foods or specialty eggs.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced, showing a slowdown in growth plans.
Why it matters: The DOJ agreement may improve Cal-Maine's reputation. It could also make the company more stable.
Watch forCal-Maine will report successful compliance by the end of Q1 2027.
Also watch forProblems in meeting compliance could lead to more scrutiny or penalties.
Why it matters: If egg prices stabilize or go up, it shows recovery from low prices. This can increase revenue and margins.
Supportive ifAverage wholesale egg prices rise above $0.72 per dozen in Q3.
Worry ifAverage wholesale egg prices stay below $0.72 per dozen in Q3.
Why it matters: A steady gross profit margin shows good cost control. This can help earnings stay strong.
Supportive ifGross profit margin stabilizes above 27% in the next quarter.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 25% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Expanding in Prepared Foods can diversify revenue and boost margins. This fits with management's growth plans.
Supportive ifThe $54 million investment in Prepared Foods will be done by mid-fiscal 2028.
Worry ifThere may be delays or problems in expanding Prepared Foods production.
Why it matters: A rise in net sales would show better market conditions and good management.
Supportive ifNext earnings report shows net sales recovering from the 53% decline reported in Q3.
Worry ifNext earnings report shows net sales decline further or remain flat.
Why it matters: More sales of specialty eggs show that the company is growing. This means higher profits.
Supportive ifSpecialty egg sales reach or exceed 55% of total shell egg sales in the next quarter.
Worry ifSpecialty egg sales drop below 50% of total shell egg sales.
Why it matters: Following the DOJ agreement will help build investor trust. It will also stabilize operations.
Supportive ifNo further legal issues arise from the DOJ agreement in the following quarters.
Worry ifNew legal issues or problems with the DOJ agreement arise.
Why it matters: More board members can enhance governance and support strategic growth.
Supportive ifNew independent directors will join the board.
Worry ifNo new independent directors are appointed to the board in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Good integration can make things run better. It can help Cal-Maine in the market.
Supportive ifManagement sees better results and gains from the Creighton Brothers deal.
Worry ifIntegration problems can cause issues. They may not deliver the expected benefits.
Why it matters: Egg prices affect revenue. A steady or rising price shows recovery from past issues.
Watch forWholesale egg prices are steady or higher than last quarter.
Also watch forWholesale egg prices keep falling or are unstable.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company is working more efficiently. It shows good financial health.
Supportive ifNet cash flow from operations increases by more than 20% compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifIf net cash flow from operations goes down or stays the same, it is a concern.
Why it matters: Court approval will solve legal issues. This will help focus on growth.
Supportive ifCourt approves the agreement with the DOJ and 17 states without changes.
Worry ifCourt denies approval or wants big changes to the agreement.