Calix (CALX)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.96-2.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating income improves beyond $12.7M in 2026-Q1: Operating income not reported.
Calix is growing revenue strongly, from $220M in 2025-Q1 to $280M in 2026-Q1. Profit improved from a loss to $12.7M in 2026-Q1. The company expanded its stock buyback program to $525M, showing capital return focus. New cloud and AI products support future growth.
Calix faces a federal lawsuit over hiding margin declines, threatening profits. The recent guidance cut and selloff show risks to earnings and margins. Elevated risk and legal issues could hurt growth and operating income.
The price is about 4% below our fair value near $39. Analysts expect 19% revenue growth next year. The market partly prices in growth but also legal and margin risks.
Breaks if: No buyback activity or program reduced below $400M in 2026
Continue capital allocation discipline by expanding the stock repurchase program with an additional $100 million authorization.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and operational efficiency. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to key priorities.
The market currently prices CALX at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that investors expect continued strong performance. However, there is an expectations gap, suggesting that some of the anticipated growth may already be reflected in the valuation.
Management is on track with their priorities, including increasing revenue and improving operating income. Recent financial results show consistent growth, but there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, which could impact sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain revenue growth and improve operational efficiency. Additionally, external factors such as potential interest rate cuts and performance from sector leaders will play a significant role in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company posted record results, indicating strong revenue growth. There are no current threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Board increased the stock repurchase authorization by $100M to $525M in 2026-Q2, up from $425M prior. This demonstrates management's continued commitment to capital allocation discipline and share repurchase expansion, delivering on this priority.
“The Board amended the stock repurchase program to authorize up to an additional $100 million of common stock repurchases.”
“Remaining authorized balance under the repurchase program was $63.4 million as of March 28, 2026.”
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 50% in FY26
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $10M in next 4 quarters
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.0B in FY26
Focus on growing revenue through expanding customer base and enhancing subscriber experiences with Calix One platform.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue increased from $220.2M in 2025-Q1 to $293.3M in 2026-Q2, showing consistent growth. Management's focus on expanding subscriber base and enhancing experiences via Calix One platform aligns with this revenue trajectory, indicating delivery on this priority.
“More than 1,200 customers leverage the Calix One platform to acquire new subscribers and grow existing subscriber revenue.”
“Calix One platform enables service providers to acquire new subscribers and grow existing subscriber revenue.”
Overall, CALX is positioned well for the next few years, but its valuation remains a concern. Not investment advice.