Calix (CALX)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.96-2.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CALX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers
Why it matters: Active buybacks show management believes in the stock's value. This can help the share price.
Supportive ifCalix repurchases at least $50 million of its stock within the next quarter.
Worry ifIf there are no buybacks next quarter, it shows a lack of confidence.
Why it matters: Insights on the Calix One platform could drive future growth. This event may clarify strategic direction.
Watch forCalix shares good news about the Calix One platform and its customer support.
Also watch forLack of clear direction or negative feedback on the Calix One platform.
Why it matters: Good buybacks can raise share value. They also show management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement may announce a rise in share price or fewer shares available.
Worry ifShare price may drop or stay the same after buybacks.
Why it matters: The earnings date can change how investors feel and cause stock price changes.
Watch forQ3 earnings date is announced as October 26, 2026.
Also watch forEarnings date is delayed or not announced by the expected timeframe.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $402 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,858 loss on $10,000 · 48.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates and market conditions. This impacts Calix's business.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates. This shows a tighter money policy.
Also watch forFOMC keeps or lowers interest rates. This shows a looser money policy.
Why it matters: Better operating income means improved cost control. Drops could mean problems.
Supportive ifOperating income in Q2 shows a gain of over 15% compared to Q1.
Worry ifOperating income drops or stays the same compared to Q1.
Why it matters: The Investor Day will outline Calix's long-term growth strategy. This could impact investor confidence and stock performance.
Supportive ifAttendees and analysts liked the growth plan shared at the event.
Worry ifNegative reactions or lack of clarity on the growth strategy during or after the event.
Why it matters: This growth rate will show if Calix can keep its revenue momentum. A drop below 15% may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income means improved cost control and efficiency. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $21.8M in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income was below $21.8M in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates can show how much management trusts the company's value and finances.
Supportive ifThere may be news about more stock buybacks beyond the current $525M plan.
Worry ifNo news about the stock buyback plan in the next quarter.