Callaway Golf Company (CALY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.90+1.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CALY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CALY — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-01
Regulation FD Disclosure.* On June 1, 2026, Callaway Golf Company issued a press release captioned “Callaway Golf Company Announces Full Repayment of Term Loan B.” A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by this reference.
Why it matters: Going above this guidance shows strong operations and good cost control.
Supportive ifThe full-year Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be more than $260 million.
Worry ifThe full-year Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be less than $246 million.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company is working well and is financially healthy.
Supportive ifCash from operations turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Lower EBITDA may show weaker performance and change future guidance.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was less than $98 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was more than $98 million.
Why it matters: Higher tariff costs could hurt margins and overall profits.
Worry ifFull year gross tariff expense reported above $50 million.
Less concerning ifFull year gross tariff expense reported below $50 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $449 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,146 loss on $10,000 · 21.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A slowdown in buybacks may mean a change in how money is spent.
Worry ifShare repurchases drop below $42 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases stay steady or go above $42 million.
Why it matters: A downward revision shows weaker demand. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net sales guidance falls below $585 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 net sales guidance remains at or above $585 million.
Why it matters: Stalling margins may show problems with managing costs and setting prices.
Worry ifGross margin improvement stalls or declines from the current 50.1%.
Less concerning ifGross margin improves beyond 50.1% in Q3.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to confirming ongoing demand for Callaway's products. A drop below this level may signal weakening consumer interest.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth prints below 2% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Improving margins is important for making more money. Going above this level shows good cost control.
Supportive ifGross margin improvement exceeds 500 basis points year over year.
Worry ifGross margin improvement is less than 500 basis points year over year.
Why it matters: Lower debt gives more financial freedom and cuts interest costs. This is important for future growth.
Supportive ifTotal debt remains below $100 million.
Worry ifTotal debt rises above $100 million.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show that management believes in the company's worth. This could help the share price.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $120 million in 2026.
Worry ifShare buybacks are less than $120 million in 2026.