Callaway Golf Company (CALY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.92-4.10%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CALY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -15.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CALY — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-01
Regulation FD Disclosure.* On June 1, 2026, Callaway Golf Company issued a press release captioned “Callaway Golf Company Announces Full Repayment of Term Loan B.” A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by this reference.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA rose 35.8% in Q2. Q3 results will test if the earnings gain can support the higher yearly range.
Supportive ifCallaway keeps its $246M–$260M full-year Adjusted EBITDA range. Q3 Adjusted EBITDA rises from the prior year.
Worry ifCallaway cuts the full-year range below $246M. Or, Q3 Adjusted EBITDA falls below the prior-year quarter.
Why it matters: Golf Equipment drove Q2 growth, while Apparel, Gear and Other sales fell 3.6%. Continued equipment growth would show the main sales driver remains strong.
Supportive ifQ3 Golf Equipment sales grow more than 4.5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 Golf Equipment sales fall year over year, or growth drops below zero.
Why it matters: Margin gains came from price increases, lower costs, and less low-margin business. Keeping those gains would support higher earnings.
Supportive ifQ3 non-GAAP gross margin is at least 48.5%, matching Q2's reported level.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP gross margin falls below 48.5% as price or cost gains fade.
Why it matters: Q2 sales rose 2%, after Q1 rose 9.2%. Strong Q3 sales would help support the raised full-year sales range.
Supportive ifOn November 5, Callaway reports Q3 sales growth above 2% year over year and keeps its $2.045B–$2.070B full-year sales range.
Worry ifQ3 sales fall year over year, or Callaway cuts the full-year sales range below $2.045B.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$118 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $327 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,113 loss on $10,000 · 31.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New tariffs lowered the 2026 cost estimate by about $7M versus the prior view. Higher costs could weaken margin gains.
Watch forCallaway keeps its full-year gross tariff cost near $43M or lowers it, and reports no new tariff cost above its plan.
Also watch forCallaway raises its full-year gross tariff cost above $43M or names new tariffs that lift costs.