CarGurus (CARG)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.74-1.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CARG
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 CARG trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 13× p/e peer median, and our $36 fair value agrees. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $35–$44. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $41.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $73.24 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $74.58 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $12.34 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$35.00 – $44.00 (median $41.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-08-12
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 138% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 17.1 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.85/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $29.65 |
| 13.4 |
| 2.22 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $8.91 | 3.5 | 2.18 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $38.78 | 11.4 | 3.40 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $29.65 | 13.4 | 2.22 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $10.45 | 1.0 | 10.70 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $28.43 | 12.8 | 2.22 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $10.96 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $31.85 | 13.4 | 2.38 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $53.11 | 13.4 | 3.98 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $49.29 | 11.4 | 4.32 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $35.30 | 13.4 | 2.64 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $10.40 | 1.0 | 10.66 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $33.85 | 12.8 | 2.64 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $78.33 | 13.4 | 5.86 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $57.85 | 11.4 | 5.07 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $30.42 | 13.4 | 2.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $8.97 | 1.0 | 9.18 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $29.17 | 12.8 | 2.28 | Analyst | medium |