Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CarGurus (CARG)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$36.15-1.01%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.03 → 3.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CARG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase gross profit through operational efficiencies | Profit margins improve with gross profit rising to $224.6M. | Intact | Gross profit falls below $197.9M in Q1 2026 | Gross profit: $231.098M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Increase gross profit to at least $224.6M in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026231,098,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CARG is a growth-oriented business with recent strong financial performance, rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year view is intact, supported by consistent revenue growth and improving operating income, but company quality has weakened recently.
Valuation is tagged as justified, with a premium to peers and an expectations gap that is somewhat negative. This suggests expectations are broadly aligned with the business, but the evidence does not point to a large margin for error.
Near-term results show steady revenue growth and higher operating income, in line with management’s stated priorities. Gross margin remains high but has edged lower, and operating income has been uneven in quarters with impairments. The sector backdrop is a headwind, while the recent earnings beat and low near-term miss risk are supportive.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on CARG continuing to grow revenue without further pressure on margins or operating income. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while lower interest rates or continued strong results from large sector peers could support the sector backdrop. A CEO transition is recent, but the evidence does not detail its likely business impact.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CARG’s long-term thesis is supported by consistent growth and management execution, but it is tempered by sector headwinds and lower company quality. The key test is whether growth and operating progress continue without a guidance cut or worsening margin pressure. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in CarGurus's published investment case. The stated target is Stabilize or increase operating income above $40M in FY26. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operating income falls below $40M in FY26 |
Operating income: $62.982M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Stabilize or increase operating income above $40M in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202662,982,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Year-over-year revenue growth of 10% to 13% for 2026 | A primary condition in CarGurus's published investment case. The stated target is 10% to 13% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 7.24% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 10% to 13% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20267.237441 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Full-year revenue grew 14% for the second consecutive year, driven by expanding wallet share with accelerating product adoption, improving retention, and adding new dealers.” ““We are pleased with our first quarter results, as we sustained our momentum with revenue growing 15% year-over-year as we continued to invest in AI-led product innovation across dealer pillars and the consumer journey,” said Jason Trevisan, Chief Executive Officer at CarGurus.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.92 → $3.02 · observed estimates
$1.11B → $1.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.92 | $1,108,579,530 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.92 | $1,108,579,530 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.92 | $1,108,579,530 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.92 | $1,108,579,530 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.92 | $1,108,579,530 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.92 | $1,108,579,530 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.92 | $1,108,579,530 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.92 | $1,108,579,530 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.92 | $1,108,579,530 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.93 | $1,108,674,310 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.92 | $1,110,149,795 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.02 | $1,104,866,770 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.02 | $1,104,866,770 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.02 | $1,104,866,770 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.02 | $1,104,866,770 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.02 | $1,104,866,770 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.02 | $1,104,866,770 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.02 | $1,104,866,770 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.02 | $1,104,866,770 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.02 | $1,104,866,770 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.02 | $1,105,028,308 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.03 | $1,106,362,251 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.03 | $1,106,362,251 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.03 | $1,106,362,251 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.03 | $1,106,362,251 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.02 | $1,106,378,444 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.02 | $1,106,336,777 | 7 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.