CarGurus (CARG)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.74-1.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CARG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CARG — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-06
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 6, 2026, CarGurus, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into the First Amendment (the “Amendment”), to that certain Credit Agreement dated September 26, 2022 (as previously amended, supplemented or otherwise modified, the “Existing Credit Agreement,” and as amended by the Amendment, the “Credit Agreement”), by and among the Company, PNC Bank, National Association, as administrative agent and collateral agent, and an L/C Is…
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program may show management's trust in the company.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of more share buybacks over $50 million.
Worry ifNo new announcements or a reduction in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Changes in dealer acquisition rates can show market demand and growth chances. Strong rates help revenue growth.
Supportive ifU.S. paying dealers increase by more than 5% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifU.S. paying dealers decrease or grow less than 5% quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: Good cost management helps the company. Being efficient is also important.
Supportive ifOperating income is above $63 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income is below $60 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Better operating income means better cost management. This leads to more profit.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $40.1 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income was below $35 million in Q2 2026.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$166 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $383 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,092 loss on $10,000 · 30.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More use of AI products can boost engagement and revenue.
Supportive ifDealers are using AI products more. Engagement has increased by over 20%.
Worry ifThere was no big increase in dealer engagement with AI products.
Why it matters: A big drop in EBITDA margin may show higher costs or problems. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifQ2 2026 non-GAAP EBITDA margin decline worse than 2.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 non-GAAP EBITDA margin decline of 2.5% or less year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below 10%, it may show weak demand or more competition.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show trust in the company's finances. They also help share value.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases reach or exceed $250 million by year-end 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases drop below $150 million by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in gross profit margin may mean rising costs or pricing pressures.
Worry ifGross profit margin reported below 90% in Q3.
Less concerning ifGross profit margin remains at or above 90% in Q3.
Why it matters: Lower EBITDA may show issues with making money and managing costs.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA was less than $77.5 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA was $77.5 million or more.
Why it matters: A continued drop in operating income may show problems with costs or pricing.
Worry ifOperating income declines more than 5% from Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating income goes up or stays the same compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More use of AI products may improve competition and increase revenue.
Supportive ifAI product adoption metrics show growth of over 15% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifAI product adoption metrics show no growth or decline quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in paying dealers shows strong market demand and effective sales strategies.
Supportive ifU.S. Paying Dealers reported growth above 4% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifU.S. Paying Dealers growth reported below 2% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Exceeding this amount shows strong performance and good cost control.
Supportive ifIn Q3, non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was more than $90 million.
Worry ifIn Q3, non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was less than $82 million.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if CarGurus can maintain its revenue growth trend. A strong guidance suggests continued momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance confirmed within the range of $253.5 million to $258.5 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance falls below $253.5 million.