CarGurus (CARG)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$36.15-1.01%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CARG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CARG — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-06
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 6, 2026, CarGurus, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into the First Amendment (the “Amendment”), to that certain Credit Agreement dated September 26, 2022 (as previously amended, supplemented or otherwise modified, the “Existing Credit Agreement,” and as amended by the Amendment, the “Credit Agreement”), by and among the Company, PNC Bank, National Association, as administrative agent and collateral agent, and an L/C Is…
Why it matters: CarGurus guided to $253.5 million to $258.5 million. Revenue above that range would extend its recent growth streak.
Supportive ifOn November 5, Q3 revenue is reported above $258.5 million, the top of guidance.
Worry ifOn November 5, Q3 revenue is reported below $253.5 million, the bottom of guidance.
Why it matters: Full-year guidance calls for a margin drop of 0.5 to 1.5 points. A larger drop would show added pressure as costs grow.
Worry ifThe 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin falls more than 1.5 percentage points from 2025.
Less concerning ifThe 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin falls 1.5 points or less, in line with guidance.
Why it matters: Guru is CarGurus' new consumer AI tool. More use would support management's plan to bring AI into the full car-shopping path.
Supportive ifCarGurus reports a rise in Guru use or engagement in its next results update.
Worry ifCarGurus reports no growth or a drop in Guru use or engagement in its next update.
Why it matters: More paying dealers can support revenue growth. The latest count was up 5% year over year.
Supportive ifThe next report shows more than 34,629 total paying dealers, with year-over-year growth above 5%.
Worry ifThe next report shows fewer than 34,629 total paying dealers or a year-over-year decline.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$161 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $385 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,092 loss on $10,000 · 30.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.