Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$15.32-4.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CARL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve cash from operations from -$13 million in 2026-Q1 | A supporting condition in Carlsmed, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is cash flow less negative than -$13 million. | Improving | cash flow worsens beyond -$13 million | Cash from operations: $-7.358M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: cash flow less negative than -$13 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 2026-7,358,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CARL is a speculative growth business, not yet a profitable one. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: revenue growth and guidance have strengthened, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
The valuation model suggests CARL is expensive versus peers, with optionality helping explain the premium. Expectations appear demanding, and the model has low confidence, so the valuation read is uncertain.
Near term, revenue growth and two guidance increases support momentum, while the latest guidance calls for more than 50% growth in 2026. Gross margin has improved, but operating losses have widened and cash from operations remains negative; recent CFO and COO transitions add execution uncertainty.
The multi-year thesis depends on turning revenue growth and better gross margins into improved operating results and cash generation. A guidance cut after recent increases would damage credibility, while a weakening jobs trend could weigh on cyclical healthcare names; continued strength from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CARL’s growth story is supported by rising guidance, but profitability, cash use, and execution remain unresolved. The valuation premium leaves limited room for setbacks, and the evidence has medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Reduce operating losses from -$9.3 million in 2026-Q1 |
| A primary condition in Carlsmed, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is operating loss less negative than -$9.3 million. |
| Improving |
| operating loss worsens beyond -$9.3 million |
Operating income: $-11.036M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss less negative than -$9.3 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 2026-11,036,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Gross margin was 76.8% for the second quarter of 2026, compared with 73.4% in the second quarter of 2025.” “Gross margin was 77.1% for the first quarter of 2026, compared with 74.9% for the first quarter of 2025.” Gross profit was $14.542 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Grow revenue to at least $72 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Carlsmed, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $72 million. | Intact | revenue falls below $72 million in FY26 | Revenue: $18.94M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $72 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202618,940,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.42 → $-1.40 · observed estimates
$0.10B → $0.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.42 | $104,953,056 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.44 | $104,950,580 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.44 | $104,950,580 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.44 | $104,950,580 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.44 | $104,950,580 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.44 | $104,950,580 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.44 | $104,950,580 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.42 | $104,953,056 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.44 | $104,950,580 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.44 | $104,950,580 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.44 | $104,950,580 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.42 | $104,953,056 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.42 | $104,953,056 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.42 | $104,953,056 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.42 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.42 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.38 | $107,745,860 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.42 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.42 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.42 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.42 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.42 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.42 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.42 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.42 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.42 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.42 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.40 | $108,105,863 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.40 | $108,105,863 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.40 | $108,103,223 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.40 | $108,125,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.40 | $108,125,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.40 | $108,125,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.40 | $108,125,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.40 | $108,125,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.40 | $108,125,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.40 | $108,125,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.40 | $108,125,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.40 | $108,125,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.40 | $108,125,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.40 | $108,125,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.40 | $108,125,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.40 | $108,125,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.40 | $108,125,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.40 | $108,125,023 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-1.40 | $108,127,663 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.