Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.60+0.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CARL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 49.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CARL — credit agreement
Dated 2025-10-30
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 29, 2025, Carlsmed, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into the Fifth Amendment (the “Fifth Amendment”) to the Loan and Security Agreement, dated as of December 20, 2022, with Customers Bank (the “Customers Loan Agreement”). The Fifth Amendment provides the Company with a credit facility consisting of (i) a term loan in the principal amount of up to $50.0 million (the “Term Loan”), $17.5 million of which is contingent upon the achievement of re…
Why it matters: Good data would help launch the corra™ system. It would also boost market confidence.
Supportive ifLook for peer-reviewed clinical data that shows the corra™ system works.
Worry ifNo data or bad results from studies on the corra™ system.
Why it matters: Positive impact from the CMS ruling could drive revenue growth and improve margins.
Supportive ifRevenue growth speeds up a lot after the CMS ruling starts.
Worry ifRevenue growth does not improve or declines after the CMS ruling takes effect.
Why it matters: The earnings report will give updates on revenue, operating income, and cash flow.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 20% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show strong growth. It would also support the raised guidance.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at $18 million or higher.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $16 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$233 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $766 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,803 loss on $10,000 · 48.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is key for Carlsmed's financial health. It shows the company is managing costs better.
Supportive ifOperating income turns positive or shows less than -$9 million for the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income drops below -$9.3 million for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Exceeding this guidance would show strong demand and growth momentum for Carlsmed's products.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance for 2026. It is now over $78 million.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue guidance for 2026. It is now below $74 million.
Why it matters: Widening losses may show trouble in controlling costs even with revenue growth.
Worry ifOperating loss exceeds $11 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating loss remains below $11 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More cash flow from operations means the company is financially healthier. It shows stability.
Supportive ifCash from operations is positive or improves from -$13 million in Q1 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations stays negative or gets worse, showing cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important for long-term profits. It shows the company is cutting costs.
Supportive ifOperating income is now positive. It improved from -$9.3 million.
Worry ifOperating income gets worse or stays negative at -$9.3 million or worse.
Why it matters: If sector growth speeds up, it may help Carlsmed's performance. This shows a stronger market.
Watch forHealth Care sector revenue growth speeds up to 9% or more.
Also watch forHealth Care sector revenue growth keeps slowing down below 9%.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insights on revenue growth and cost management. It can impact investor sentiment.
Watch forEarnings are better than expected with revenue over $17 million.
Also watch forEarnings are worse than expected with revenue under $16 million.
Why it matters: More trained surgeons show strong demand for Carlsmed's products.
Supportive ifSurgeon adoption grows by more than 60% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSurgeon adoption growth slows to below 30% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The CMS ruling may greatly increase revenue from lumbar procedures.
Supportive ifRevenue from lumbar procedures increases by more than 20% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevenue from lumbar procedures decreases or remains flat in Q3 2026.