Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$15.32-4.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CARL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 59.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 58.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers
CARL — CFO transition
Dated 2026-09-30
CFO — Leo Greenstein: The departure of the Chief Financial Officer is a significant management change that typically signals negative sentiment, especially without an immediate named successor in the excerpt.
Why it matters: Gross margin rose, but the Q2 operating loss grew to $11.0 million. Smaller losses would show progress toward making a profit.
Worry ifQuarterly operating loss is over $11.0 million. Revenue is under $18.9 million.
Less concerning ifQuarterly operating loss is below $11.0 million as revenue is at least $18.9 million.
Why it matters: Carlsmed raised its 2026 revenue range twice. Q3 results will show if sales stay on that path.
Watch forOn the November 10 report, Carlsmed keeps its $74–$78 million 2026 revenue range and reports Q3 revenue above $18.9 million.
Also watch forOn the November 10 report, Carlsmed cuts its $74–$78 million range or reports Q3 revenue below $18.9 million.
Why it matters: Richard Heppenstall took over as CFO on September 28. His first results will show whether the handoff keeps the 2026 plan on track.
Watch forAt the November 10 results, the company keeps its $74–$78 million revenue range. Q3 revenue is above $18.9 million.
Also watch forAt the November 10 results, the company cuts its revenue range or reports Q3 revenue below $18.9 million.
Why it matters: Cervical products were about 10% of Q2 revenue. More sales would show that newer products are gaining use.
Supportive ifCarlsmed reports aprevo cervical revenue above 10% of quarterly revenue. More surgeons have trained to use it.
Worry ifCarlsmed reports aprevo cervical revenue at or below 10% of quarterly revenue. Or it delays the corra cervical launch.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$223 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $743 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,803 loss on $10,000 · 48.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.