Maplebear Inc. (CART)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$51.07-1.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Maplebear grows revenue about 12% a year. Profit margins improve with operating income rising to $182 million in 2026-Q1. The company returns capital with a $3.5 billion share buyback program. Growth from international expansion via Instaleap adds upside.
Competition is intense, leading to price cuts that hurt margins. Legal challenges and wage lawsuits raise costs. Guidance cuts and mixed momentum signal risks to growth and profitability.
The price is about 35% below our fair value near $74, reflecting justified concerns. Analysts expect 12% revenue growth, which aligns with management's targets, but risks from competition and legal issues may pressure results.
Breaks if: Gross margin falls significantly below 8% next year
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $150 million next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
CART represents a durable compounder in the Consumer Staples sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by management's focus on growth and capital return, but recent earnings misses raise some caution.
The market seems to have a neutral view on CART's valuation, with expectations slightly below historical performance. The stock is priced at a premium compared to peers, indicating that some growth is already expected.
Management's execution on growth initiatives appears to be on track, with recent financial performance showing robust earnings quality. However, the elevated risk from potential earnings misses could impact future results.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth momentum and navigate sector challenges. Key factors include guidance on future earnings and the performance of sector bellwethers like PG, KO, and COST.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Recent partnerships and customer growth support CART's growth objectives. However, the latest earnings miss raises concerns about its performance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year
Breaks if: Share repurchases fall below $500 million next year
Expand the share repurchase authorization and execute opportunistic buybacks to return capital to shareholders.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board increased the share repurchase program to $3.5 billion. The company repurchased $1.4B in shares in 2025, including $1.1B in Q4, and continued repurchases of $349M in Q1 and $325M in Q2 2026. Management is delivering on capital return commitments with consistent buybacks.
“Repurchased $325 million in shares and ended the quarter with $1 billion in cash and similar assets.”
“Repurchased $349 million in shares and ended the quarter with approximately $880 million in cash and similar assets.”
“In 2025, we generated $971 million in operating cash flow and repurchased $1.4 billion of shares, including $1.1 billion in Q4 alone.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CART's performance will depend on its growth execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.