Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Maplebear Inc. (CART)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$59.22+1.56%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.96 → 2.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 24 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 23 to 24; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CART yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage competitive pricing and legal challenges | A primary condition in Maplebear Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain stable or improving gross margin near current levels. | Intact | Gross margin falls significantly below 8% next year | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CART is a growth-oriented business with robust earnings quality and a sector tailwind. Its long-term thesis is intact, while management execution is uneven and overall risk is elevated.
Valuation is above peers, reflecting a durable premium, while the expectations gap is close to neutral. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, and no fragility gates are present, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Over the multi-year view, revenue growth and Q2 GTV growth support management’s marketplace, enterprise, and advertising expansion priority. Share repurchases are also progressing, while international growth has execution evidence but no separately established financial contribution. Near term, consecutive earnings misses and possible guidance cuts remain risks.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, and continued weakening in jobs data could increase recession concerns for consumer staples names. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as PG, KO, and COST would support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued growth execution and a supportive sector backdrop, balanced against earnings-miss risk, volatile management execution, and a valuation premium to peers. The thesis remains intact, but the near-term evidence is mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins improve with operating income rising to $182 million in 2026-Q1. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $150 million next year |
Operating income: $174M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$182 million operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 2026174,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 12% per year | Maplebear grows revenue about 12% a year. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year | Revenue growth: 16.61% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=12% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 29, 202616.613419 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Active share repurchase program of $3.5 billion | The company returns capital with a $3.5 billion share buyback program. | Intact | Share repurchases fall below $500 million next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.99 → $2.97 · observed estimates
$4.60B → $4.75B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.99 | $4,598,945,690 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.99 | $4,598,945,690 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.99 | $4,598,945,690 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.99 | $4,598,945,690 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.99 | $4,598,945,690 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.99 | $4,598,945,690 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.99 | $4,598,945,690 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.01 | $4,617,878,542 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.99 | $4,600,194,160 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.02 | $4,619,078,139 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.99 | $4,600,194,160 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.02 | $4,619,078,139 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.02 | $4,619,078,139 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.02 | $4,619,078,139 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.02 | $4,619,212,282 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.96 | $4,645,194,630 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.96 | $4,645,194,630 | 27 / 28 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.02 | $4,619,212,282 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.95 | $4,686,267,350 | 27 / 29 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.02 | $4,619,212,282 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.02 | $4,619,212,282 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.02 | $4,619,212,282 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.02 | $4,619,212,282 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.02 | $4,619,212,282 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.02 | $4,619,212,282 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.02 | $4,619,212,282 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.02 | $4,619,212,282 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.98 | $4,709,186,396 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.98 | $4,709,186,396 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.98 | $4,709,186,396 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.98 | $4,709,186,396 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.98 | $4,709,186,396 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.98 | $4,709,185,727 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.98 | $4,709,185,727 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.98 | $4,709,185,727 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.98 | $4,709,185,727 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.98 | $4,709,185,727 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.98 | $4,709,185,727 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.98 | $4,709,185,727 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.98 | $4,709,185,727 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.97 | $4,708,336,203 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.97 | $4,708,336,203 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.97 | $4,708,336,203 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.97 | $4,708,336,203 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.97 | $4,708,336,203 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.97 | $4,708,336,203 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.97 | $4,709,789,845 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.97 | $4,709,789,845 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.97 | $4,709,789,845 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.97 | $4,709,789,131 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.97 | $4,709,789,131 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.97 | $4,710,062,827 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.97 | $4,710,062,827 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.97 | $4,710,062,827 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.96 | $4,711,262,827 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.96 | $4,711,262,827 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.96 | $4,711,262,827 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.96 | $4,711,262,827 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.96 | $4,711,261,337 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.96 | $4,711,261,337 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.97 | $4,712,543,229 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.97 | $4,712,543,229 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.97 | $4,712,543,229 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.97 | $4,712,543,229 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.97 | $4,712,543,229 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.97 | $4,712,543,229 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.97 | $4,712,543,229 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.96 | $4,713,386,013 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.96 | $4,713,386,013 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.96 | $4,713,386,013 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.96 | $4,713,386,013 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.96 | $4,713,386,013 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.96 | $4,713,386,013 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.96 | $4,713,386,013 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.96 | $4,713,966,658 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.96 | $4,713,966,658 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.96 | $4,713,966,658 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.96 | $4,713,966,658 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.96 | $4,713,969,500 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.96 | $4,713,969,500 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.96 | $4,713,969,500 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.96 | $4,713,969,500 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.96 | $4,713,969,500 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.96 | $4,713,969,500 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.96 | $4,713,969,500 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.96 | $4,713,969,500 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.96 | $4,713,969,500 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.96 | $4,713,959,197 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.96 | $4,713,959,197 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.96 | $4,713,959,197 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.96 | $4,713,959,197 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.96 | $4,713,959,197 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.96 | $4,713,959,197 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.96 | $4,713,959,197 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.96 | $4,713,959,197 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.96 | $4,713,959,197 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.96 | $4,713,945,019 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.96 | $4,713,945,019 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.99 | $4,730,648,926 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.98 | $4,749,317,486 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.98 | $4,749,317,486 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.98 | $4,749,317,486 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.97 | $4,751,195,998 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.97 | $4,752,637,357 | 24 / 24 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 23 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.