Maplebear Inc. (CART)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$51.07-1.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CART
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -34.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 48.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CART — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as expressly set forth b…
Why it matters: Growth in advertising revenue helps overall revenue. A drop below 16% may show weakness.
Worry ifAdvertising revenue growth is below 16% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifAdvertising revenue growth is at or above 16% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Hitting this goal shows strong commitment to returning money to investors. It can help boost confidence.
Supportive ifTotal share buybacks reach or exceed $3.5 billion by the end of 2026.
Worry ifTotal share buybacks stay under $3 billion by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show that management trusts the business.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of an increase in the share repurchase program beyond $3.5 billion.
Worry ifNo updates or a decrease in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Updates on the Instaleap deal will show how Maplebear is growing in new markets.
Supportive ifNew partnerships or market entries for Instaleap may be announced soon.
Worry ifNo news or delays in plans for international expansion.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$160 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $419 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,992 loss on $10,000 · 29.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: GTV growth is key to Instacart's performance. A drop below 14% signals potential issues.
Worry ifQ3 GTV growth guidance below 14% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ3 GTV growth guidance at or above 14% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show that management is confident. A slowdown may raise worries about future spending.
Worry ifShare repurchases drop below $300 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases remain above $300 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows improved cost management. This is key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up compared to last quarter.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same compared to last quarter.