Maplebear Inc. (CART)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$59.22+1.56%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CART
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 16.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 0 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CART — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-29
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Merger Agreement Overview On October 28, 2026, Maplebear Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with DoorDash, Inc., a Nevada corporation (“ Parent ”), and Ibiza Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Merger Sub ”). Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, and upon the terms and subject to the conditions described therein, Merger Su…
Why it matters: The board approved a Caper Cart wind-down through Q2 2027. Charges above the stated range would point to a larger cost than disclosed.
Worry ifInstacart reports total pre-tax charges above $80 million for winding down Caper Cart. Or it says the wind-down lasts past Q2 2027.
Less concerning ifTotal pre-tax charges stay at or below $80 million, and the wind-down is substantially complete by the end of Q2 2027.
Why it matters: GTV grew 14% in Q2 and 15% in Q3. A sharp slowdown would weaken the recent growth trend.
Worry ifThe next reported quarter shows GTV growth below 14% year over year.
Less concerning ifThe next reported quarter shows GTV growth of 14% or more year over year.
Why it matters: The $65-per-share deal depends on stockholder and regulator approval. A delay or failed vote could change the deal outcome.
Watch forInstacart stockholders approve the deal, and regulators clear it. The merger closes by the stated window: late 2027 or the first half of 2028.
Also watch forStockholders reject the deal, a regulator blocks it, or either company ends the merger deal.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $419 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,878 loss on $10,000 · 28.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.