Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
Cava Group (CAVA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$60.01-3.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.75 → 0.74 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 22 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 22 to 22; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CAVA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain positive EPS with at least $0.55 per share in FY26 | A supporting condition in Cava Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.55 EPS. | Improving | EPS falls below $0.55 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.19 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.55 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 20260.19 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business whose multi-year view depends on opening more restaurants and lifting sales at existing locations. The thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and risk is elevated.
CAVA is expensive versus peers, with a valuation premium of 5.2; the model’s confidence in that comparison is low. The evidence points to expectations that growth and expansion continue, but does not quantify what the market assumes about future results.
Near term, restaurant growth is steady: locations rose 19.6% year over year to 476 in 2026-Q2, while same-restaurant sales reached 9.0%. Restaurant-level profit margin was 25.7%, above the full-year guidance range, though margins have fluctuated and cost pressure remains; a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis hinges on continued restaurant openings, sustained sales gains at existing locations, and margins staying near management’s stated goal. Guidance and results from sector bellwethers such as MCD, SBUX, and YUM could signal whether the broader consumer backdrop remains supportive.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CAVA’s expansion and recent operating strength support an intact long-term thesis, but its expensive valuation makes execution and guidance important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Cava Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.176 billion. |
| Intact |
| Revenue falls below $1.176 billion in FY26 |
Revenue: $368.436M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.176 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 2026368,436,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Same-restaurant sales grow 4.5% to 6.5% in FY26 | Same-store sales are expected to grow 4.5% to 6.5%. | Intact | Same-store sales growth falls below 4.5% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Open 75 to 77 net new restaurant locations in FY26 | It plans to open 75 to 77 new restaurants in 2026. | Intact | Net new openings fall below 75 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.75 → $0.74 · observed estimates
$1.81B → $1.82B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.75 | $1,811,242,610 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.75 | $1,811,242,610 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.75 | $1,810,303,526 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.75 | $1,810,303,526 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.75 | $1,810,303,526 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.75 | $1,810,303,526 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.75 | $1,810,303,526 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.75 | $1,810,358,292 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.74 | $1,818,154,950 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.74 | $1,818,154,950 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.74 | $1,818,156,150 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.74 | $1,818,157,622 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.74 | $1,818,157,622 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.74 | $1,818,157,622 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.74 | $1,818,157,622 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.74 | $1,818,157,622 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.74 | $1,818,136,175 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.74 | $1,818,136,175 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.75 | $1,818,547,713 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.75 | $1,818,547,713 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.75 | $1,818,547,713 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.75 | $1,818,547,713 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.75 | $1,818,547,713 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.75 | $1,818,547,713 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.75 | $1,818,547,713 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.75 | $1,818,547,713 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.75 | $1,818,137,622 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.75 | $1,818,137,622 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.75 | $1,818,137,622 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.75 | $1,818,299,125 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.75 | $1,818,299,125 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.75 | $1,818,299,125 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.75 | $1,818,299,125 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.75 | $1,818,299,125 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.75 | $1,818,299,125 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.75 | $1,818,299,125 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.75 | $1,818,299,125 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.75 | $1,818,299,125 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.75 | $1,818,808,325 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.75 | $1,818,808,325 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.75 | $1,818,808,325 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.75 | $1,818,808,325 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.75 | $1,818,809,925 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.75 | $1,818,809,925 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.75 | $1,818,809,925 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.75 | $1,818,688,504 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.75 | $1,818,688,504 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.75 | $1,818,383,924 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.75 | $1,818,383,924 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.75 | $1,818,383,924 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.75 | $1,818,075,204 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.75 | $1,817,649,732 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.75 | $1,816,963,136 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.74 | $1,815,340,022 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.74 | $1,815,340,022 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.74 | $1,815,340,022 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.74 | $1,815,340,022 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.74 | $1,815,268,630 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.74 | $1,815,268,630 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.74 | $1,815,268,630 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.74 | $1,815,268,630 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.74 | $1,815,268,630 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.74 | $1,815,268,630 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.74 | $1,815,268,630 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.74 | $1,815,268,630 | 22 / 21 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.