Cava Group (CAVA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$60.01-3.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CAVA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 81.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
CAVA — officer change
Dated 2026-04-21
Director — Karen Kochevar: Karen Kochevar is retiring from the Board upon the expiration of her current term and will not stand for re-election.
Why it matters: Q2 restaurant margin fell 60 basis points from a year earlier. Salmon costs, delivery mix, and wage spending pressured the rate.
Worry ifQ3 restaurant-level profit margin is below 23.7%, the low end of full-year guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 restaurant-level profit margin is at least 23.7%. Pressure from salmon and delivery costs is easing.
Why it matters: CAVA posted 9.0% same-store sales growth in Q2. Its full-year range starts at 4.5%. A result below that level would weaken the sales growth read.
Worry ifQ3 same-store sales growth is below 4.5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 same-store sales growth is at least 4.5%, with guest traffic still growing.
Why it matters: CAVA opened 17 restaurants in Q2 and has a 2026 target of 75 to 77. Falling short would signal a slower build-out.
Worry ifCAVA reports fewer than 75 net new restaurant openings for full-year 2026.
Less concerning ifCAVA reports 75 to 77 net new restaurant openings for full-year 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$192 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $539 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,891 loss on $10,000 · 48.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.