Cava Group (CAVA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$60.76-1.48%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CAVA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 81.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CAVA — officer change
Dated 2026-04-21
Director — Karen Kochevar: Karen Kochevar is retiring from the Board upon the expiration of her current term and will not stand for re-election.
Why it matters: A drop in digital sales may show changes in what customers want. This affects revenue.
Worry ifDigital revenue mix reported below 39% for Q3.
Less concerning ifDigital revenue mix exceeds 40% for Q3.
Why it matters: Profit margin is key to financial health. A drop below 23.7% could signal cost pressures.
Worry ifProfit margin at restaurants is 23.7% or higher.
Less concerning ifProfit margin at restaurants is below 23.7%.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how well CAVA runs its business. Good results can help gain investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026 is more than $181 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026 falls below $176 million.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may mean less demand or more competition. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifCAVA's revenue growth reported below 22.5% in future quarters.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above 32.2%, showing strong market demand.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$220 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $539 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,761 loss on $10,000 · 37.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Opening new restaurants is key for growth. More locations can lead to higher revenue and market share.
Supportive ifCAVA opens 75 to 77 net new restaurants in 2026.
Worry ifCAVA opens fewer than 74 net new restaurants in 2026.
Why it matters: This metric shows how well existing restaurants perform. A drop could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifSame restaurant sales reported below 4.5% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifSame restaurant sales reported above 6.5% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New openings drive growth. Fewer than 75 could indicate challenges in expansion.
Worry ifNet new restaurant openings are below 75 for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifNet new restaurant openings are above 77 for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Margins reflect cost management and pricing power. A drop could signal financial strain.
Worry ifRestaurant profit margin is below 23.7% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifRestaurant profit margin is above 24.3% for Q3 2026.