Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cboe Global Markets (CBOE)
BATSFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$353.07+2.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
BATSFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
14.95 → 15.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CBOE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Data Vantage organic net revenue growth | Cboe grows its Data Vantage revenue about 19% yearly. | Intact | Data Vantage revenue growth falls below 10% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CBOE is a durable financial-market infrastructure business with robust earnings quality. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent revenue growth and raised growth targets supporting the case, though risk is elevated and recent financial performance is neutral overall.
CBOE is valued at a substantial premium to peers, reflecting the market’s expectation of durable growth. The expectations gap is large, but confidence in the valuation model is low, so the premium is not firmly supported by the evidence.
Near term, recent results show revenue growth and record Data Vantage revenue, while adjusted operating expenses fell year over year; management also raised its organic growth targets. Expense control is mixed, and the recent history of a deep miss and a most recent quarter miss leaves some execution risk despite a recent earnings beat.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on CBOE sustaining its raised guidance without a reversal that would damage management credibility. Fed rate cuts could weigh on the sector, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could support momentum.
For the 1 to 3 year view, growth and execution support an intact thesis, but the expensive peer valuation and elevated risk make delivery important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It manages costs well, aiming for $838-$853 million in operating expenses in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Operating expenses exceed $853 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Progress on strategic realignment for core business focus | The company realigns to focus on core businesses and invests for growth. | Intact | Realignment not substantially completed by end of 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$15.02 → $15.46 · observed estimates
$2.93B → $3.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $15.02 | $2,927,803,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $15.02 | $2,927,803,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $15.02 | $2,927,803,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $14.67 | $2,952,283,688 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $15.02 | $2,927,803,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $15.02 | $2,927,803,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $15.02 | $2,927,803,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $15.02 | $2,927,803,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $15.02 | $2,927,803,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $14.84 | $2,988,648,842 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $15.17 | $2,953,498,080 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $15.17 | $2,953,498,080 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $15.23 | $2,970,716,970 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $15.23 | $2,970,716,970 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $14.87 | $2,990,870,146 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $14.87 | $2,990,870,146 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $15.25 | $2,975,332,450 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $14.87 | $2,990,870,146 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $14.87 | $2,990,870,146 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $15.25 | $2,975,312,450 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $14.87 | $2,990,870,146 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $14.87 | $2,990,870,146 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $14.87 | $2,990,870,146 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $14.87 | $2,990,870,146 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $14.87 | $2,990,870,146 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $14.87 | $2,990,870,146 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $14.87 | $2,990,870,146 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $14.87 | $2,990,870,146 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $14.90 | $2,999,326,184 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $14.90 | $2,999,326,184 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $14.90 | $2,999,326,184 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $14.90 | $2,999,326,184 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $14.90 | $2,999,326,184 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $14.90 | $2,999,326,184 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $14.90 | $2,999,326,184 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $14.90 | $2,999,326,184 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $14.93 | $2,999,326,184 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $14.93 | $2,999,326,184 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $14.93 | $2,999,326,184 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $14.93 | $2,999,326,184 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $14.93 | $2,999,326,184 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $14.93 | $2,999,326,184 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $14.93 | $2,999,326,184 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $14.92 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,960 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,927 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.93 | $2,998,079,927 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $14.95 | $2,997,531,713 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $14.95 | $2,997,531,713 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $14.95 | $2,997,531,713 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $14.95 | $2,997,531,713 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $14.95 | $2,996,932,966 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $14.95 | $2,999,931,139 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $14.99 | $2,999,931,139 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.99 | $2,999,931,139 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $15.11 | $3,014,330,257 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $15.11 | $3,014,330,257 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $15.10 | $3,011,395,721 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $15.11 | $3,011,395,721 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $15.10 | $3,009,056,221 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $15.09 | $3,008,265,722 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $15.09 | $3,008,265,722 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $15.09 | $3,008,265,722 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $15.09 | $3,008,265,722 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $15.09 | $3,008,265,722 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $15.10 | $3,010,680,007 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $15.10 | $3,010,680,007 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $15.10 | $3,010,680,007 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $15.10 | $3,010,680,007 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $15.10 | $3,010,680,007 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $15.10 | $3,010,680,007 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $15.10 | $3,010,680,007 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $15.10 | $3,010,680,007 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $15.16 | $3,017,465,722 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $15.16 | $3,017,465,722 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $15.31 | $3,031,865,413 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $15.31 | $3,031,865,413 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $15.31 | $3,031,865,413 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $15.46 | $3,042,710,497 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $15.46 | $3,042,710,497 | 10 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 9 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.