Cboe Global Markets (CBOE)
BATSFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$298.38-0.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
BATSFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Recent financial performance slipped notably this past month, though still top-half.
Cboe grows its Data Vantage revenue about 19% yearly. It manages costs well, aiming for $838-$853 million in operating expenses in 2026. The company realigns to focus on core businesses and invests for growth. Earnings beats show strong execution despite market challenges.
New ETF rivals threaten Cboe's core business. The recent sharp selloff shows investor concerns. Operating expenses rose in Q1, and strategic realignment progress is mixed. Revenue growth is expected to decline nearly 29% next year, signaling risk.
The price is about 12% above our fair value near $231, which is 31% below the Street median target. Analysts expect about -29% revenue growth, reflecting a pessimistic outlook that may be too harsh given recent beats and growth in Data Vantage.
Breaks if: Data Vantage revenue growth falls below 10% YoY next year
Focus on increasing Data Vantage organic net revenue growth to 'low double-digit' range.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue growth. The current thesis is cautious, given the elevated risk and mixed recent performance.
CBOE is currently priced at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that the market has high expectations for its future performance. The expectations gap suggests that investors are anticipating continued strong growth, which may not be fully justified given recent changes.
Management is on track with its priorities, including increasing organic revenue growth and maintaining disciplined expense management. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, though past performance shows potential for significant misses.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPGI, CME, and ICE. If these companies continue to perform well, CBOE could benefit, but any signs of weakness could negatively impact its momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the read on CBOE. However, there are concerns about a strategic realignment that may divert focus from its core business. This shift could impact its competitive position amid rising competition from perpetual futures venues.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Operating expenses exceed $853 million in FY26
Breaks if: Realignment not substantially completed by end of 2026
Overall, CBOE's fundamentals show promise, but the elevated valuation and sector dependency create a cautious outlook for the next 1-3 years. Not investment advice.