Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Coastal Financial Corp/WA (CCB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$43.25-2.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.81 → 5.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CCB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful expansion of Banking-as-a-Service via acquisitions | It is expanding Banking-as-a-Service through acquisitions like Evolve Bank. | Improving | No material progress or setbacks in BaaS acquisitions by end 2026 | Qualitative: Bluevine acquisition pending; 2 earnings misses Bluevine acquisition announced; two earnings misses in H2 2026; President departure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CCB is a growth and execution story, with partner and product expansion in its CCBX business as a key source of progress. The long-term thesis is marked intact, but the latest earnings miss, repeated recent misses, and low confidence leave the current setup mixed.
The valuation is described as justified, with no flagged signs of unusual fragility. CCB trades at a premium to peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what the current setup supports.
Over the multi-year view, CCBX growth has evidence of delivery: fee income rose between Q1 and Q3, and partner programs expanded into more products. Near term, consecutive earnings misses and elevated miss risk cloud the outlook; lower Q3 expenses partly reflected the absence of a prior-quarter adjustment, while credit indicators improved but charge-offs were modestly higher than projected.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, and Fed rate cuts could weigh on CCB and the wider Financials sector. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as HDB, IBN, and USB would support sector momentum, while CCB’s own progress on partner growth, savings, and credit risk remains central to the thesis.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CCB has evidence of partner-business growth and improving credit indicators, but the latest miss and elevated near-term risk make execution uncertain. The long-term thesis remains intact with low confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Coastal Financial Corp/WA's published investment case. The stated target is net income >= $12M. |
| Broken |
| Net income falls below $12M for two consecutive quarters |
Net income: $-42.105M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $12M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026-42,105,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to at least $111.7M by 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in Coastal Financial Corp/WA's published investment case. The stated target is >= $111.7M revenue. | Broken | Revenue falls below $102M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $118.554M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $111.7M revenue. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 2026118,554,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.98 → $5.18 · observed estimates
$0.74B → $0.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.98 | $742,870,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.98 | $742,936,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.98 | $742,936,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.98 | $742,936,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.98 | $742,936,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.98 | $742,936,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.98 | $742,870,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.98 | $742,870,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.98 | $742,936,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.33 | $753,063,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.33 | $753,063,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.33 | $753,063,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.33 | $753,063,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.33 | $753,063,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.33 | $753,063,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.33 | $753,063,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.33 | $753,063,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $6.33 | $753,063,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.33 | $753,063,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.33 | $753,063,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.33 | $753,063,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.33 | $753,063,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.33 | $753,063,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.33 | $753,063,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.33 | $753,063,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.91 | $746,011,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.89 | $744,937,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.89 | $744,937,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.89 | $744,937,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.89 | $744,937,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.89 | $744,937,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.81 | $742,699,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.81 | $742,699,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.81 | $742,699,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.81 | $742,699,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.81 | $742,699,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.81 | $742,699,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.81 | $742,699,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.76 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.76 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.44 | $740,969,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.13 | $688,569,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.08 | $682,144,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.08 | $682,144,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.08 | $682,144,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.08 | $682,144,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.18 | $635,685,000 | 3 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.