Coastal Financial Corp/WA (CCB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$50.33+2.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Stabilize or improve net income above $12M: EPS -2.76 vs target $12M net income.
Coastal Financial is growing revenue from $102M in 2024-Q4 to $111M in 2026-Q1. It is expanding Banking-as-a-Service through acquisitions like Evolve Bank. Management is working to fix earnings after recent misses. The stock price is down 10% from highs, reflecting some concerns.
Earnings have declined from $13.4M to $12.0M recently, showing weak profit performance. The company missed earnings multiple times in 2025 and early 2026. Growth depends heavily on acquisitions and new products, which may not deliver as planned.
The market expects about 44% revenue growth next year and has priced the stock about 27% below our model's value range. Recent estimate revisions are down, reflecting caution on earnings. Our view is cautious given mixed progress on earnings and growth.
Breaks if: No material progress or setbacks in BaaS acquisitions by end 2026
Breaks if: Net income falls below $12M for two consecutive quarters
Revenue falls below $102M in any quarter after 2026-Q1
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is in a financial services company that is currently navigating a challenging environment. The thesis state is cautious, as recent changes in leadership and earnings misses have created uncertainty, despite some positive financial trends.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, with a low fragility tier. There is a divergence in expectations, as the current premium over peers suggests that investors are cautious but not overly pessimistic.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued growth in BaaS programs, as management is focused on expansion and scaling. However, the high risk and recent earnings misses indicate that there may be volatility in performance in the near term.
The long-term thesis hinges on CCB's ability to maintain growth through management's priorities, as well as the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. Any guidance changes or earnings results from these companies could significantly impact CCB's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss significantly impacted the outlook for CCB. This miss indicates challenges in stabilizing or improving net income, which is crucial for the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, CCB is in a watch state as it balances strong growth potential with high risk. Not investment advice.