Coastal Financial Corp/WA (CCB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$43.25-2.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CCB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 35.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 75.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CCB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 29, 2026, Coastal Financial Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations and financial condition for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026 (the “Press Release”). As previously announced, the Company will host an earnings call at 8:00 a.m. ET (5:00 a.m. PT) on October 29, 2026. The Press Release is “furnished” as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K pursuant to General Instructi…
Why it matters: The CFO search is in its final stages, while an interim CFO is serving after the prior CFO left. A named hire would end the interim period.
Supportive ifCoastal announces a permanent CFO appointment and names the person who will take the role.
Worry ifThe interim CFO remains in place through the next earnings report, or the company reports a delay in the search.
Why it matters: Partner and product growth is a stated priority. Higher fees would show that expansion is adding income.
Supportive ifQuarterly BaaS program fee income rises above $14.1 million. Coastal reports new partners or product launches.
Worry ifQuarterly BaaS program fee income falls below $14.1 million, and partner or product growth stalls.
Why it matters: Bluevine's planned exit affects Coastal's deposits and partner fees. The bank says it can replace the funding through other sources.
Watch forThe deal closes by Q2 2027. Coastal says Bluevine deposits moved with no major impact on liquidity or funding.
Also watch forThe deal is delayed or does not close. Coastal reports a major funding or liquidity impact as Bluevine balances leave.
Why it matters: The affected partner drove large Q2 charges. More losses could add costs and weaken confidence in repayment.
Worry ifCCBX net charge-offs on average CCBX loans rise above 7.98%. Or the $45.6 million credit enhancement valuation allowance grows.
Less concerning ifCCBX net charge-offs fall below 7.98% and the valuation allowance stays at or below $45.6 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$171 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $493 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,844 loss on $10,000 · 68.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.