Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Capital City Bank Group, Inc. (CCBG)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$50.34-2.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.75 → 3.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CCBG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain disciplined credit performance | Capital City Bank Group grows earnings steadily with disciplined credit. | Intact | Significant rise in credit losses or delinquencies | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Credit Quality Nonperforming assets (nonaccrual loans and other real estate) totaled $9.7 million at September 30, 2026, compared to $13.4 million at June 30, 2026 and $10.5 million at December 31, 2025.” “The decline in the allowance reflected improved credit quality metrics and a lower level of net loan charge-offs of 8 basis points of average loans for the third quarter of 2026 versus 14 basis points for the second quarter of 2026 and 18 basis points for the third quarter of 2025.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CCBG is a regional financial company with a steady, execution-led long-term thesis rather than a turnaround story. The thesis is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and recent performance in the top half of its industry, but execution evidence is mixed and confidence is medium.
CCBG trades at a premium to peers, which the evidence links to a durable premium, while its expectations gap is modestly negative. The pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a market setup that depends on exceptionally strong execution.
Near-term, credit quality has improved: net loan charge-offs fell from 18 basis points in 2025-Q3 to 8 in 2026-Q3, and nonperforming assets declined from the prior quarter. Core deposits grew, while total deposits were only slightly higher than year-end; expenses remain above Q1 despite a small Q3 decline. Recent earnings beats support the thesis, but the management score fell, and the next guidance update is an important near-term risk.
The multi-year view hinges on sustaining credit discipline, controlling expenses, and turning core deposit growth into firmer overall deposit growth. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while falling rates could weigh on the financial sector; continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CCBG’s thesis remains intact, with better credit measures and core deposit growth offset by mixed expense control and a lower management score. The main swing factors are upcoming guidance, interest-rate conditions, and continued execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Leverage solid deposit trends | A supporting condition in Capital City Bank Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain or grow deposit base. | Intact | Deposit base declines materially | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS at or above $3.61 in FY26 | A primary condition in Capital City Bank Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3.61 USD per share. | Broken | EPS falls below $3.0 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.99 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3.61 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20260.99 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Control expenses to support earnings | Expense control supports profit stability. | Intact | Expense ratio rises significantly above current levels | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “3 million, a $0.3 million, or 0.8%, decrease from the second quarter of 2026 and a $0.6 million, or 1.4%, decrease from the third quarter of 2025.” “For the first nine months of 2026, noninterest expense totaled $126.3 million, a $2.2 million, or 1.7%, increase over the same period of 2025 and reflected increases in other expense of $3.0 million and occupancy expense of $0.8 million partially offset by a $1.6 million decrease in compensation expense.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.68 → $3.80 · observed estimates
$0.27B → $0.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.68 | $268,550,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.75 | $266,550,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.80 | $265,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.80 | $265,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.80 | $265,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.80 | $265,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.80 | $265,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.80 | $265,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.80 | $265,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.80 | $265,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.80 | $265,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.80 | $265,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.80 | $265,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.80 | $265,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.80 | $265,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.80 | $265,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.80 | $265,450,000 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.